Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 02/22

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit Each) LA Lakers/Denver Nuggets 1st Quarter Over 61.5 & 1st Half Over 123.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:30 PM CT on ABC

I’m looking to play this angle in every Nuggets home game, pretty much regardless of what the numbers are. Denver games are getting over totals this high against teams with terrible offenses like Charlotte, so now that they have an offense of superstars coming in I’d expect nothing but improvement.

In fact, for their past 12 home games, Denver has only faced 2 opponents in the top-10 for offensive efficiency, but they still keep getting over this kind of total. That’s just how things go in Denver, and the Lakers looking to show out in primetime should help turn this into another early shootout.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) CS Northridge -4.5 @ UC Davis (-110; Odds via Caesars): 4:00 PM CT on ESPN+

Northridge is quietly one of the hottest teams in the country, and this is a matchup where that hot streak is not being valued enough in the number. KenPom has this as a 5-point margin in favor of CSUN, but that’s not factoring in current form, and that has the Matadors on a tear.

They have won 8 of 9, only losing to the Big West’s first place team while running out the second place team on Thursday. UC Davis simply doesn’t have the three-point shooting needed to take advantage of CSUN’s defensive weakness, so the fast-paced Matadors should pull away in this one.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Florida -10.5 @ LSU (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:00 PM CT on SECN

Florida is worthy of all the respect they’re getting, and if they continue to play at a high level they’ll make a strong case for a 1 seed next month. But those dreams die quickly with subpar showings against the conference bottom-feeders, so the Gators need to make a statement in Baton Rouge today. I expect Todd Golden to have them ready to get those style points in this one, and it might just happen naturally given the mismatch here.

LSU just doesn’t have the shooting ability to compete with the country’s 3rd-best effective field goal defense. The Tigers have been run out on their home floor twice already this season by quality SEC teams, most notably Auburn winning by 13 points. With Florida competing against Auburn for seeding, that game needs to be their minimum goal for winning margin and I think they get there.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Akron -2.5 @ Ohio (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:00 PM CT on ESPN2

I’ll back Akron on short numbers any day, as this team that’s clearly the class of the MAC is usually laying very heavy lumber. There is one important angle for this game and it’s usually what creates runaway blowouts, but in this case only needs to create a one-possession win.

That’s three-point shooting, and the advantage is heavily in favor of Akron here as they’re 17th in the split of points they score via the three-ball, going up against the country’s 4th-worst three-point percentage defense. If Akron is having even moderate success from deep they’ll be able to pull away and cover a discounted number.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Duke -8.5 vs Illinois (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 7:00 PM CT on FOX

Has Duke been challenged enough in a weak ACC to hold up against a high-level opponent from one of the elite superconferences? That will be a discussion into Selection Sunday, but the Blue Devils have an opportunity to make a lasting impression tonight and I think they take advantage.

I’m in the camp that believe the illness issues running through the Illinois locker room is a big factor, as is the injury to Morez Johnson that weakens an already shorthanded front line. MSG, aka Cameron North, will feel like a home game for Duke, and the Fighting Illini’s recent struggles combined with health concerns will be too much to overcome.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Butler/DePaul First Half Over 70 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on FS1

Both of these teams can really score if you let them play their preferred style, which is what I think we see tonight in a national TV spot. Neither team is headed for a winning Big East season, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see both coaches let this game play loose and fast with plenty of three-point volume.

That’s what both offenses want to do as both are extremely high-volume offenses from outside. And Butler’s recent offensive resurgence definitely got started when they dropped 86 on DePaul a month ago, so they know how to score at will on the Blue Demons. Throw in some higher pace in the hyped national TV spot and I see plenty of points starting out tonight.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +69.3 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.