Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 02/21

Locks

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Cornell @ Yale -9.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+

Yale is running away with the Ivy League, and is going to give some unsuspecting 4 or 5 seed a really tough time next month. Tonight, they’re going to give Cornell another tough time, as they already dropped 103 points on the Big Red just a couple weeks ago. It’s not impossible for the Bulldogs to threaten triple digits again, as they’re one of the country’s best three-point shooting teams and Cornell is 331st in opponent three-point percentage.

Home court also matters quite a bit in the Ivy, especially with Yale going 7-2 ATS in their own gym and beating up visiting Ivy opponents by 18.8 points on average. I think this Yale offense is going to be too much for Cornell to handle as they’re just 276th in adjusted defensive efficiency. While the Big Red can shoot it extremely well, their offense has hit a rough patch lately and that’s not something you can afford against Yale, so this definitely projects as a double-digit margin in my opinion.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Siena Team Total Over 72.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+

If Siena is playing at home, I’m expecting points, period. This trend took a disgusting beat last week as the Saints could not get a shot to drop in the second half, but this should be an opportunity to get back on track. This underrated Siena offense will get to face off against a Niagara squad ranked 322nd in adjusted defensive efficiency.

The Purple Eagles are particularly bad against the three, ranked 350th in opponent three-point percentage, so those shots should be dropping for Siena. With the added benefit of a home whistle to help them get to the line, I’m seeing the trend return tonight as the Saints will score effectively here.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Green Bay @ Robert Morris -14 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+

Don’t let Green Bay finally notching a conference win on Sunday fool you, they’re still as bad as ever. One of the laughingstocks of college hoops is in for a return to reality tonight against a hot team that has already shredded them once this season. Robert Morris is making a run at the Horizon title, and they already went into Green Bay and came away with a 22-point win.

The Colonials might be weak on the interior, but that won’t be threatened by Green Bay’s overreliance on three-point shooting. If Robert Morris shuts off the three-pointers and continues to guard without fouling, Green Bay’s sources of points dry up and this turns into another rout. I don’t see the Phoenix gaining any momentum off a single win, but the Colonials have what’s needed to run away with this one and I think they do.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Michigan St/Michigan First Half Under 72.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 7:00 PM CT on FOX

An in-state rivalry with the winner having sole possession of first place in the conference sets up as a tight, hard-fought affair. Especially on Friday night on national TV, so I see this game getting out to a slower start in the scoring department. These are two excellent defensive teams, ranked in the top-25 for adjusted defensive efficiency, and they’re both able to shut down what the other offense does well.

The Spartans have an elite perimeter defense ranked 10th in opponent three-point percentage that can slow down Michigan’s high volume of three-point shooting. The Wolverines meanwhile have the twin towers of Danny Wolf and Vlad Golden to force State to be a jump-shooting team, which usually causes them to melt down. So I’m seeing a tight, high-stakes game where most of the shots will be from two-point range, and that sets up as an under for this high first half total.

Degenerates

NBA Minnesota Timberwolves/Houston Rockets First Half Under 106.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:30 PM CT on ESPN

There’s a vacation hangover going on in the NBA. Teams that should be scoring like crazy have looked like they only got a different kind of shots up during the All-Star break, and totals have been significantly impacted. I’m sensing another one here as both the Wolves and Rockets got the extra day off, so they would be even that more sluggish tonight.

At least to start the game, which wouldn’t be much of a surprise anyway as these teams are in the bottom half of the league for first half scoring. They’re both in the top-5 for first half points allowed though, so having those excellent defenses be aided by sluggish offense should keep this first half under the total.

Tiny Nick has gained +69.3 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.