Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 02/20

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Julius Randle Over 21.5 Points (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 6:30 PM CT on ESPN

Randle having a 41-point outburst heading into the All-Star break creates a whole lot of hope for Wolves fans like me. If he’s able to turn into his old self and whatever discontent in the locker room gets squashed, then the Wolves have a lot of runway in the Western Conference playoff picture. I think that version can show up again tonight, as Dallas is extremely thin at the forward spot so there aren’t a lot of options to slow Randle down. Notable from that 41-point game is that he got double-digit free throw attempts for the first time in a month, so continuing that bully ball against a thin frontcourt can really raise his scoring floor tonight.

NBA (1 Unit) Cleveland Cavaliers/Charlotte Hornets Under 231.5 (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 6:00 PM CT on Fanduel Sports SE

Yesterday’s game was an easy under as expected with Charlotte, who now faces a total that’s a full 15 points higher than last night. Their opponent tonight is much more over prone as Cleveland’s style can get them into some shootouts, but we’ve already seen this matchup three times already this season. Those three meetings have gone 2-1 to the under with just 224.7 regulation points per game.

And if you’re going to tell me that both teams are on a back-to-back which impacts defensive legs, think again. It actually has the opposite effect for both squads, particularly Charlotte who is 9-2 to the under on no rest, while the Cavs are 4-4 to the total with a -4.9 plus/minus. The Hornets are now the best under team in the league and I’m riding the streak at a big number like this.

NBA (1 Unit) Denver Nuggets/Portland Trail Blazers Over 238.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 9:00 PM CT on KUNP

Nuggets games and Blazers games both need to be under automatic consideration for an over whenever they take the floor, and putting them together in this situation is definitely a play for me. Denver owns the best over record in the league, and comes into this game off last night’s crazy loss so their record of 8-3 to the over on no rest is triggered.

Portland meanwhile is the third-best over team in home games, and when they have a rest advantage on their opponent like tonight, their games are 9-3 to the over. The Blazers are going to push tempo, and their solid offense should be able to score easily against the tired Nuggets defense. But that also gives the league’s best offense by pretty much every metric more opportunities, in a positive regression spot, to score at will and I think they do.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Marist/Manhattan Under 142.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+

Marist is like the Charlotte Hornets of college basketball, you simply have to roll with the under whenever they take the floor. The Red Foxes have an excellent defense and play at a glacial pace, leading them to a 16-9 record to the under on the season. They’re well-suited to shutting down Manhattan, as the Jaspers won’t be able to connect from deep against the country’s 2nd-best three-point defense, and they’re a very poor shooting team inside the arc.

Marist simply doesn’t play the kind of style or have a good enough offense to take advantage of Manhattan’s defense, especially on the road here. This total has ticked up because the first meeting got to 148 points thanks to a weird second half, but that was an outlier result for Marist, and I expect them to get back to their usual low-scoring ways tonight.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 21-30 (-4.10 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Extreme Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.