Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 02/12

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Indiana Pacers First Half Team Total Over 62.5 (+100; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on MNMT

The Pacers should be in a bad mood here after two straight ugly losses, and what better opponent to take it out on than Washington. The offense is plenty strong for Indiana to do whatever they want against this Wizards defense that’s allowing the most first half points in the league. That three game winning streak for Washington against bad and shorthanded teams was cute, but it’s been back to reality lately. Now they have three straight home losses where the visitor has cleared this first half total each time, and I see another here against a Pacers squad that is looking to stomp someone.

NBA (0.75 Unit) Cleveland Cavaliers First Half Team Total Over 61.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on TSN

The Cavaliers have owned this Toronto team on the season, and it has usually started right away. Cleveland has dropped 69, 65, and 61 first half points in the three meetings, and come in red hot in opening halves since their frustrating home loss to Boston last week. That shouldn’t be a surprise for the team that leads the league in first half scoring at 62.0 PPG, so they should continue their success against a Raptors squad that’s 22nd in first half points allowed at home.

And if Toronto gets some key pieces back tonight like RJ Barrett or newest-Raptor Brandon Ingram, their offense will be able to push the Cavs and force them to score even more. I expected to see this total come in a point or two higher, so I’ll take the over on what I consider a discounted number

NBA (0.75 Unit Each) Portland Trail Blazers/Denver Nuggets 1st Quarter Over 56.5 & 1st Half Over 112.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 8:00 PM CT on Altitude

I’ll take profits from when both of these cashed on Monday and stack it on top, because once again I love these numbers that are so discounted in my opinion. This is the exact same first quarter total as on Monday when they got to 65 points, and a one-point adjustment upwards on the first half number even though Monday saw 125 points before halftime.

That’s just how Nuggets home games go, with very little defense and red-hot shooting from the league’s best field goal percentage team. These teams have met twice this season, averaging 65 first quarter points and 128.5 first half points, so the only thing wrong with these plays is that they’re almost too easy.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Evansville/Missouri St Under 131.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN+

This game might end being a first-team-to-60-wins kind of affair, if they even get that productive on offense. The first meeting saw Evansville win 57-40, and a repeat of that level of scoring is not out of the question tonight. These offenses are atrocious, with Evansville ranked 325th in adjusted efficiency and 285th in effective field goal rate. Missouri State is 260th in adjusted offensive efficiency, and while they shoot it better, their production is limited by being 335th in tempo and 341st in taking care of the basketball. Neither team does much from the charity stripe either, so points will be tough to come by tonight.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Arizona St/Texas Tech 1st Half Under 67.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on CBSSN

This game sets up as an under in general in my opinion, but I really think points will be limited early on thanks to a revival by the Texas Tech defense. After a sloppy start to the season trying to figure out Grant McCasland’s defensive system, the Red Raiders have started to clamp down on defense and it starts early. Tech is allowing just 28.4 first half points in home games this season, and that drops to 26.5 in their past 4 games as the defense has picked up.

Arizona State for their part has been about as inconsistent as it gets with first half scoring, a product of their overreliance on three-point shooting. But that creates a big key for tonight as their three-point percentage drops 6 points on the road this season. And they’re up against a great perimeter defense, as Tech holds visitors to just 31% from deep and really limits three-point production in general. If the Red Raiders are able to slow the tempo here and limit three’s, we’ll see a lower-scoring first half tonight.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +70.4 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.