Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 02/11

Locks

NBA (0.75 Unit) NY Knicks -2.5 @ Indiana Pacers (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on TNT

This is an interesting situational spot for both teams, and it favors New York no matter how you look at it. The Knicks are coming off a beatdown in MSG at the hands of the Celtics, just an embarrassing game that they’ll want to bounce back from. The Pacers meanwhile are in the classic Malinsky Special situation here, playing their first home game after a cross-country road trip.

The market recognizes these situations and is favoring the Knicks as this number has moved significantly, which also might signal positive news on Josh Hart and OG Anunoby’s statuses for this game. A healthy Knicks team would be the better team by far, so I’ll back them here to atone for Saturday’s disappointment.

NBA (0.75 Unit) Memphis Grizzlies/Phoenix Suns First Half Over 119.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on TNT

If the Grizzlies are in action against a functional offense, I’m looking at the first half to be high scoring, simple as that. The Suns would certainly qualify as a functional offense with Kevin Durant returning tonight, so they should be able to keep pace with a Memphis squad that’s second in first-half scoring this season. And with the Suns just 20th in first half points allowed at home this season, they’ll be surrendering a lot to this excellent, up-tempo Grizzlies offense.

I think the first half is key here, as the full-game total has gotten a little high. Just look to the other meeting this season, also in Phoenix, where these teams fell short of the full-game total but easily crushed the first half number with 124 points. Ja Morant also missed that game, so adding him back into the equation should equal even more scoring to get over this early total.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Iowa St/UCF Over 158 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+

Those three losses in a row for my Clones really stung, but they responded well with an aggressive beatdown of TCU over the weekend. If they continue that aggression here, there’s no limit to what kind of numbers they can put up against easily the worst defense in the conference. It’s a UCF defense they’ve already torched for 108 points, and even 80% of that output tonight puts this total well within reach.

The Knights simply can’t stop anything, allowing 85.3 PPG in Big12 play. That’s how you get yourself the highest plus/minus to the total in the entire country at plus-10.9 points, so UCF is no stranger to cashing overs. Their fast pace and reliance on the three-ball will allow them to test an ISU defense that has not been great on the road and already gave up 83 to UCF this season, even though that game got out of hand. I’ll expect the Cyclones to have their foot on the gas all night though as they try to erase the memory of that losing streak, and I think that means points here.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Colorado @ Kansas -9.5 First Half (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN2

The Kansas schedule is becoming fairly predictable, with their ugly losses followed by massive bounce backs in the next game that always seems to be at home. The Jayhawks return to the Phog tonight after getting run out by their in-state rival over the weekend, which cannot possibly be sitting well with them. So it’s perfect timing for the worst team in the conference to visit them, and I think they take out a lot of pent up aggression here.

Kansas still has the ability to remind us why they were preseason number one, especially early in home games as they have a plus-8.5 average first half margin at Phog Allen. That’s bad news for Colorado who comes in with a minus-8.1 average first half margin on the road. The Buffaloes will have a really tough time scoring here, especially if their turnover rate that’s 10th-worst in the country bites them in the raucous environment. With the Jayhawks looking to put it on someone, this lowly Buffaloes squad is ripe for getting run out early tonight.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +69.5 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.