Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 02/10

Locks

NBA (0.75 Unit) Minnesota Timberwolves/Cleveland Cavaliers Over 229 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on Fanduel Sports North

This is exactly the kind of team the Wolves tend to get into high-scoring affairs with. An up-tempo Cavs team that scores like crazy in their own building is likely to drag Minnesota into that style of game, just as they did at Target Center in the first meeting that hit 241 points. As owners of the best over record in the league, Cleveland is rarely lined with a total this low at home, so I have to take advantage of the discounted number. Keep an eye on the status of Anthony Edwards tonight, but I think this matchup is ripe to produce another result like the first meeting.

NBA (0.75 Unit) New Orleans Pelicans @ OKC Thunder -5.5 First Quarter (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 7:00 PM CT on Fanduel Sports OK

This is an epic mismatch, and should produce a runaway game that I think gets started early. The Thunder do not mess around to start games, leading the NBA in first quarter margin, and never seem to miss an opportunity to stomp an outmatched opponent. They’ve done it to New Orleans in both meetings, leading by margins of 5 and 12 after a quarter, and those versions of the Pelicans had Brandon Ingram and Dejounte Murray. With those stars out of the picture, the Thunder should roll with ease here against a Pels team that has the second-worst average first quarter margin on the road.

NBA (0.5 Unit Each) Portland Trail Blazers/Denver Nuggets 1st Quarter Over 57.5 and 1st Half Over 114.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 8:00 PM CT on Altitude

I’ll split a unit here and expect both bets to cash, but give a slight hedge in case another random scoring drought pops up to torment me. Those don’t seem to happen too often in Denver though, especially early in games, as the Nuggets are 3rd in first quarter scoring and dead last in points allowed at home. It’s a similar story in first halves as those big first quarters provide a nice scoring floor, so even a bad Portland offense should have success.

Denver’s fast pace at altitude and league-leading shooting are a great recipe for points, and I’m counting on a bounce back from the Blazers after a poor shooting night on Saturday. These teams crushed both of these totals in the first meeting at Portland, so I’d expect Denver’s home court to provide the environment needed to get over again.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +67.3 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.