Locks
NBA (0.5 Unit) Cleveland Cavaliers First Half Team Total Under 62.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on MNMT
This is a pick that Scott Van Pelt would refer to as a HOTYB special, because it’s not enjoyable to get contrarian against some of the trends involved. Cleveland is second in the league for first half scoring, and Washington is dead last in first half points allowed, so you’d think this is the perfect storm for the Cavs to erupt in the first half. But the averages that give them those ranks are below this total, and the Cavs drop to 8th in first half points on the road.
They’ll also be dealing with injuries and trade-related depth issues at key positions, potentially holding back their elite offense just a little. And the big key here is what has happened in the other meetings this season, with Cleveland actually going 3-0 under this number with 58.7 points on average. Even in the game where they ended up with 135 points the first half was sluggish, so I’ll count on that happening again in this matchup.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) San Jose St +14.5 @ Boise St (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on FS1
It’s a real shame that San Jose can’t win games, because they sure can cover. The Spartans were doomed by an ugly start to the season, but Tim Miles can really coach, and he has at least turned them into the best ATS team in the country. They’ve been simply dominant from a cover perspective in Mountain West play, going 10-1-1 ATS which includes a cover in a 2-point loss to Boise.
The road has also been a great place for SJSU who is 8-1-1 ATS away from home, so they’re still a good bet against a Boise squad who’s been strong at home. The metrics sites are projecting right around this number as a final margin from a strictly statistics outlook, but with how good SJSU has been ATS, I’ll back them to keep going back to cover town on a nightly basis.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick has gained +70.5 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
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