Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 02/06

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Sacramento Kings @ Portland Trail Blazers -1 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on NBCS-CA

The market finally swung hard towards Portland for this game after they’ve shown they’re arguably the hottest team in the league. But that swing still leaves them at essentially a pick-em price, and I think they’re winning this game to extend their streak. They’ve already beaten the Kings at home once this season, and now they catch Sacramento on their third game in four nights after a couple of track meets. The Kings are also shorthanded thanks to being busy during trade week, while Portland has stayed out of it. I’ll take the rested, cohesive, red-hot team at home in this one.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Siena Team Total Over 66.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+

Last time Siena took the floor at home was Sunday, and I pointed out how much better their offense is at home. They responded with 84 points and now are averaging 82.2 PPG in conference home games, so obviously this number is advantageous from that basic standpoint. St Peter’s comes to town with an atrocious offense and glacial pace, so that’s definitely holding this number and all totals in the game down significantly.

But one sneaky angle for easy points has my attention, which is that Siena is excellent at getting to the line and St Peter’s happens to be the fourth-most foul prone team in the country. This projects to be a relatively close game, so with plenty of fouls by the Peacocks throughout the game and down the stretch, look for Siena to use those easy points and their hot home offense to clear this low total.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Bellarmine/North Florida Over 162.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN+

Defense does not thrive in the ASUN conference, and these two teams are prime examples. Bellarmine comes into this game with the 2nd-worst adjusted defensive efficiency in the entire country, along with the 2nd-worst effective field goal defense, and 4th-worst three-point defense. That last one will be fairly important against a North Florida team that attempts the most three’s per game in the country.

But the Ospreys can’t stop anything either, ranked 353rd in adjusted defensive efficiency, plus they play with their hair on fire at the 13th-fastest adjusted tempo. Bellarmine won’t be able to slow the pace in Jacksonville tonight, just as they couldn’t against UNF in the first meeting that hit 181 points. The bottom line is North Florida’s ASUN games are averaging 172.1 points, and getting over this number should be just another day at the office for them.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) North Dakota/Omaha Over 158.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 7:00 PM CT on Summit League Network

Defense does not thrive in the Summit League either, with North Dakota probably the second-biggest culprit in the conference. That shows how bad South Dakota is defensively because UND checks in at 348th in adjusted defensive efficiency, with the 3rd-worst effective field goal defense as well. You can get straight to the hoop right away against this defense with no resistance, and I think Omaha takes advantage all night.

But the Mavericks are nothing special defensively either, especially inside, which is why these teams traded easy buckets and got to the line a lot in the first meeting. That game hit 180 points, and with UND’s conference road games 4-0 over this total and averaging 169.5 PPG, I’m seeing another tonight.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) NDSU/Kansas City Under 139.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on Summit League Network

Ok, so there’s one place where defense sort of thrives in the Summit League, and that’s in Kansas City. The Roos are only successful defensively by comparison to the rest of their conference, but I’ll take it, especially in a matchup where they’ve already had success. UMKC held NDSU to just 71 points in the first meeting thanks to solid three-point defense, which is really the only key against a Bison team that takes the second-most shots from deep in the country.

Cut off NDSU’s supply of three’s and the team melts, which has been the case in the past two games where they’ve only scored 62 points each time. The Roos are also going to struggle offensively since they can’t shoot, and the pace is going to be slow in this game with both squads outside the top-300 in adjusted tempo. So the defense might be more accidental than anything given that it’s the Summit, but I’m just not seeing where the offense comes from to reach this total tonight.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +69.9 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.