Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 02/05

Locks

NBA (0.75 Unit) Chicago Bulls/Minnesota Timberwolves First Quarter Over 56 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on Fanduel Sport North

The Wolves don’t typically cash many over tickets, as they’re just 26-24 to the over this season. But situationally in derivative markets, they’ve been a great bet if you know where to look, and tonight is one of those cases. When they square off against a fast-paced, defense-optional team, the opening quarter is when you tend to see fireworks, especially at Target Center.

Case in point would be Monday’s loss to the Kings, when the first quarter blew up for 72 points but no other quarter got above 56 points. Another good case study is the first meeting with Chicago, when these teams combined for 62 in the first quarter. Overall, the Wolves are one of the better first quarter defenses in the league, but there’s just something about this kind of matchup. So with the Bulls on no rest and ranked 25th in first quarter points allowed, I think we see another big opening quarter tonight.

NBA (0.5 Unit) Cleveland Cavaliers/Detroit Pistons Under 238 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on Fanduel Sports Detroit

It’s easy to look at this game and see the high-powered Cleveland offense, that has created the top overs record in the league, and think another is coming here. But I’m skeptical, mostly because of how these teams have played each other so far this season. Without any injuries impacting the games, both meetings between these squads went well under with 214 and 201 points.

All the attention might be on the Cavs offense, but they can defend at an elite level too, and seem to know how to shut down the Pistons. If they lock down again to get right after a disappointing loss last night, then I don’t think Detroit scores enough to make this high of a total reachable.

NBA (0.75 Unit) Memphis Grizzlies/Toronto Raptors First Half Over 115.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on TSN

This low of a first half total is a little crazy for a Grizzlies game. Let’s start with the fact that Memphis has the best over record in road games, and the scoring gets going early as they’re 2nd in first half points on the road. But they don’t stop much either, ranked 21st in points allowed before halftime of road games, and an improving Raptors offense should be able to take advantage.

And the pace we’ll see out of the Grizzlies is a big key, as they push it more than anyone and can take advantage of a Toronto squad that was run up and down the court by the Knicks last night. Toronto has the 3rd-highest plus/minus to the total on no rest, so points are coming tonight. Let’s not forget that these teams combined for 148 first half points in their other meeting this season, and I think there will be plenty by halftime again.

NCAA Basketball (1 Unit) Butler First Half Team Total Over 32.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:30 PM CT on FS1

I’ll be fading the Seton Hall offense, particularly in the first half of games, for likely the rest of the season. This team has collapsed and appears to be giving minimal effort as they play out the string this month, so opponents should be able to capitalize early in games. The Pirates are now allowing 37.6 first half points in Big East games, with their opponents going over this number in 9 of 11 games.

That includes the first time Hall got together with Butler, as the Bulldogs put up 41 before halftime. Butler isn’t an elite shooting team, but can make their three’s and are facing an awful shooting defense from the Pirates. With a low total in this game, the isolated team totals are advantageously depressed, and I’m counting on this trend to continue.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Cleveland St -1.5 @ Northern Kentucky (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+

This number almost feels like a mistake, so I’m a little hesitant, but I can’t find anything that’s amiss with the game. Backing Cleveland State has been very profitable, as they’re on a 10-2 ATS run that’s part of their 12-game D1 winning streak.

They’ve mostly dominated the Horizon this year, and that includes a dominant win over Northern Kentucky, a home game where they won by 18 as 4.5 point favorites. So this number in the rematch, albeit on the road, doesn’t make much sense where it is. The Vikings are far and away the stronger team, with a couple of key advantages.

First off, they’re guaranteed to win the turnover battle by a wide margin as they did in the first meeting, since they’re a top-10 defense in forcing turnovers and NKU is careless with the ball. Secondly, the only thing NKU does well defensively is limit three-point production, but that doesn’t matter against the Vikings who live in the paint where the NKU defense is weak. Sometimes these seemingly too-easy games are just that, but I have to take my shot with a team that I think is set up to continue their success.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) 2-Team Moneyline Parlay (+175; Odds via Caesars)

NC State @ California (-155): 10:00 PM CT on ACC Network

Who doesn’t love a good late-night West Coast parlay to get even or get even more? Somehow these are Atlantic Coast Conference games, but I digress. That’s actually important since we have an NC State team traveling cross-country to visit a team they’ve already lost to.

The Wolfpack fell at home to the Bears just a couple weeks ago, and are really falling apart overall. They just can’t shoot, and bad offense goes everywhere with you, especially across the country. Cal has handled the bad East Coast teams who have visited Berkeley, and should be able to score at will inside tonight en route to another victory.

Wake Forest @ Stanford (-145): 10:00 PM CT on ESPNU

This is a matchup of much better teams, but still a lot of the same concept. Wake Forest will also feel the long trip to play a game that tips at 11pm their time, and I think this is a bad matchup for them. Stanford should be able to utilize their enormous size advantage to score in the paint, and use Maxime Reynaud to get Wake’s only true big Efton Reid in foul trouble.

This is also a revenge game for the Cardinal after falling to the Deacons on the road, and this time it’s Wake who is in the difficult travel spot. That’s been an extremely reliable theme in every sport since conference realignment and the ACC is the most egregious, so look for Stanford to stay undefeated at home against the eastern teams.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +68.9 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.