Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 01/31

Locks

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Dayton @ St Louis +1.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN2

Dayton should not be trading on name-brand value, but that’s really what’s going on in the market with them. It seems like every game I’m seeing an outsized number for them, and the Flyers have not been rewarding their backers as they’re currently on a 2-8 ATS run. This is a home team, not a road team, especially in A10 play as they’ve already lost 3 conference road contests.

I think they lose another tonight, as a sneaky-talented St Louis squad poses a bad matchup. The Billikens are loaded with shooters, and Dayton has real trouble guarding the three-point line. I like being able to fade a Dayton team that I see as fraudulent at this kind of number, so I’ll take the take the points and expect the home dog to win outright here.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Akron +2.5 @ Kent St (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 6:00 PM CT on CBSSN

This is another tightly lined game where I’m expecting the underdog to win outright. I don’t understand installing Kent State as a favorite here as I don’t see how they’ll be able to score enough to keep up. The Golden Flashes can’t shoot, period, ranked 339th in effective field goal rate, 357th in three-point percentage, and 243rd in two-point percentage.

They’re up against an Akron team that is bombs-away from three on a nightly basis, taking the 6th-most per game in the country and shooting it extremely well from deep. With those shots falling, Kent State will simply not be able to keep up, not with their slow tempo and poor shooting. I think Akron is clearly the class of the MAC this season, and they’ll show it tonight with another road win to stay undefeated in league play.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Dartmouth/Cornell Over 163.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+

This game is going to feature a blazing fast pace, very little defense, and some surprisingly elite offense, all of which will help to reach this big total. Both of these teams want to get up and down the floor, with Dartmouth 25th and Cornell 34th in adjusted tempo, and the Big Red averaging the 3rd-shortest offensive possession length in the country. It’s no surprise with that kind of pace that defense would suffer, and it’s weak shooting percentage defenses that I’m keying in on.

Dartmouth in particular is going to get shredded here, as Cornell is now the country’s best shooting team from an effective field goal standpoint as well as two-point shooting percentage. The Big Green are one of the weakest two-point defenses in the country, but they’ll respond by exploiting one of the worst three-point defenses. Cornell is 331st in three-point percentage defense and Dartmouth loves to launch three’s, so if these teams are trading easy buckets all night at a fast pace, this total will be easy to reach.

NCAA Basketball (1 Unit) Indiana @ Purdue -6.5 First Half (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on FOX

Any time Purdue is facing an outmatched opponent at home, I’m in on the first half, it’s just that simple. The Boilermakers are 16th in average first half margin in home games at plus-12.8 points, and in their 5 Big10 home games they’re averaging a plus-14.6 margin and are 4-1 against this spread. Purdue is also set up perfectly for this game as they’ve had an entire week to prepare for their in-state rival, so they’ll bring a full focus and effort to this game behind an insane Mackey crowd. Things are not good for Indiana at the moment, and when the barrage of Purdue three’s comes, the Hoosiers will not be able to keep up. This could get out of hand early, and I’m expecting a double-digit lead for the Boilers going into halftime.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +69.9 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.