Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 01/30

Locks

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Eastern Kentucky @ Lipscomb -10 (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN+

This is a very simple case of a road team who cannot shoot visiting a top team in the conference. That never seems to go well for the visitor, and an Eastern Kentucky team that’s 301st in effective field goal rate just won’t be able to score enough to keep up here. Lipscomb has the best adjusted defensive efficiency mark in the ASUN, along with the most efficient offense, so that’s a recipe for pulling away with ease. The Colonels just aren’t good enough inside to take advantage of Lipscomb’s one defensive weakness in allowing a lot of two’s, so I see the Bison winning another league game with authority tonight.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Oregon/UCLA Over 139.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 9:30 PM CT on FS1

This total has been steadily creeping up, but I think we see a game that gets well into the 140’s if not higher. It’s all about UCLA finally figuring it out on the offensive end, giving lots of minutes and dumping it down inside to the towering Aday Mara. That has supercharged their offense to average 81.5 PPG during this 4 game win streak, and they’ve also been a far better scoring team at home this season.

I still have some questions about their defense though, especially against teams with elite three-point shooters like Oregon has. The Ducks can shoot from anywhere and are good at getting to the free throw line, so they should do their part here. While these teams have strong defenses, the bottom line is the offenses are far more explosive than they’re getting credit for, so I’ll look to take advantage of a low total tonight.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Seattle Team Total Under 66.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 10:00 PM CT on ESPNU

Most projections have Seattle coming in right around this number tonight, but I think that’s a little too generous for the Redhawks. They’re up against the best defense in the conference, and one that can stifle their preferred methods of scoring. Grand Canyon’s defense was a fade candidate for the first part of the season, but they’ve definitely fixed those issues. The Antelopes are up to 60th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency and 49th in effective field goal defense, massive improvements from November and December.

Their one weakness would have to be interior scoring, but Seattle is 290th in two-point percentage. The Redhawks won’t be able to get good looks from deep here as GCU simply doesn’t allow many three-point attempts, and the Lopes are a disciplined defense that doesn’t foul so a Seattle team that tries to live at the line won’t have success there either. With GCU allowing 65.0 PPG in conference play, look for them to lock down another weak offense with some help from their usually raucous crowd.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +71.7 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.