Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 01/29

Locks

NBA (1 Unit) Denver Nuggets/NY Knicks Over 240 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on ESPN

I think the opening number on this total of around 3 points higher was the correct one, and I probably still would’ve bet the over. So seeing it come down to here is very surprising and now I love it even more. This is a matchup of two teams who are top-5 in scoring, shooting percentage, offensive rating, effective field goal rate, and three-point percentage. They’re also both in the bottom half of the league in defensive rating, so another top-5 stat makes sense, which is Denver being 2nd and New York 5th in best records to the over.

My suspicion is that books expect defense and slow pace from a Tom Thibodeau team, but it’s the offense that has carried the Knicks, especially against teams like Denver who want to get into shootouts. Just like New York’s past two games against the Grizzlies and Kings, we’ll see the Nuggets push tempo here and create more opportunity for the red-hot Knicks offense. But this is arguably the most efficient offense of those three Knicks opponents, so Denver will get theirs en route to an easy over tonight.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) UTSA/FAU Over 160.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+

This game will feature plenty of tempo, plenty of three’s, and plenty of bad defense, which is why metrics sites are projecting mid-160’s or higher here. Both teams are top-50 in pace and outside the top-200 in adjusted defensive efficiency, so offense will have an easy time of it tonight. These are also two very poor shooting defenses, especially against the three, and especially for FAU in that department. The Owls are the second-worst three-point percentage defense in the country, something UTSA can easily exploit as a very good three-point shooting team. With neither team particularly competitive in the AAC, look for this to be a track meet where shooters will have plenty of easy looks.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Missouri St/Indiana St Over 146.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+

I’m not understanding why this total hasn’t rocketed up based on how Indiana State is able to dictate games. The Sycamores are great at getting opponents to play their style, which is with their hair on fire at the 4th-fastest adjusted tempo in the country. That has helped produce a 14-5 record to the over for Indiana State, and I see another coming here.

The one argument against a higher total would be Missouri State’s glacial pace at 343rd in the country. But we’ve already seen the Sycamores force them into an up-tempo affair as the first meeting hit 157 points, and that was a home game for the Bears. I don’t think their defense can hold up either, ranked 349th against the three and facing the team that takes the 11th-most three’s per game. Both defenses have plenty of weaknesses, and even though neither offense is particularly efficient, there should be enough to get over this fairly moderate total.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Omaha/South Dakota Over 168.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on Summit League Network

South Dakota finally failed to hit an over last time out, as the game just wasn’t competitive enough to boost scoring. I don’t think that will be the case here as they return home and face a team they should have a stylistic advantage over. The Coyotes should be able to get to the rim with ease here, which is their preferred style and Omaha’s biggest weakness with the Mavericks just 324th in two-point percentage defense.

Omaha also has a big tendency to foul, which plays right into South Dakota’s hands as they live at the line, producing the 9th-highest split of points from the charity stripe in the country. But the Coyotes can’t guard without fouling either, so we should see plenty of easy free throw points. Omaha has been incredibly consistent and balanced offensively though, and will be able to score with ease against a Coyotes defense that gives zero effort and is now allowing the second-most points in the country. With SoDak pushing tempo on their home floor, this should turn into another track meet and get the Coyotes back to their usual ways of cashing overs.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +72.2 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.