Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 01/28

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Milwaukee Bucks -5.5 @ Portland Trail Blazers (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on TNT

Somehow the Blazers went and won 4 games in a row. Wait, I know how, it was the Bulls, Heat, Magic, and Hornets, but then things got back to reality when the Thunder beat them by 10 on Sunday night. I would honestly expect this number to be closed to that double digit margin if the Bucks weren’t in a no-rest situation here, which has been tough on them so far this season.

But the angle that seems to be getting missed in this line is Dame Time returning to Portland on national TV. You would have to expect him and his teammates to be fired up for that, especially after they’ve lost the past two meetings to Portland. But this Blazers team is not capable of holding up against the top competition, even at home where they’ve lost 6 of their last 7 by double-digit margins. Pure talent should win out here, and the Bucks should overwhelm an overinflated Blazers squad.

Bonus Prop Picks (Odds via DraftKings)

0.25 Unit – Damian Lillard Over 3.5 Made Three’s (-110)

0.5 Unit – Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 12.5 Rebounds (-110)

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Kansas First Half Team Total Over 40.5 (+100; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN+

If you had Kansas in their game over the weekend, my apologies for one of the worst and most improbable beats of all time. I think that gets the Jayhawks as fired up as they can be today though, and an opponent who should not be able to stop them visits the Phog at the perfect time. Kansas might have a one-dimensional offense, but that won’t matter against a UCF team that can’t stop anything on the interior.

UCF is having trouble stopping anything at all, as the Knights have been shredded in most of their Big12 games. They’re allowing 40.1 first half points in conference play, and that jumps to 46.8 in their Big12 road games. They also allowed Kansas to hang 44 before halftime in the first meeting in Orlando, and the Jayhawks were coming into that game after another frustrating home loss. This could be a hide-the-women-and-children game, so I’ll back KU to roar to a big start tonight.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Oregon St/Gonzaga Over 153 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 10:00 PM CT on ESPN2

This is not the kind of Gonzaga team we’re used to seeing, but you can almost always count on their bounce back and/or revenge games to go a certain way. An offensive eruption from the Zags is usually how those play out, and I think they can pull that off as they look to pay Oregon State back for an OT loss two weeks ago.

The Beavers have a strong defense, but it tends to fall off significantly away from home, and The Kennel is going to be extremely challenging for them. Plus, the first meeting went to OT tied at 83, so even at home OSU was not able to slow the Zags offense. But the biggest reason why this is not your typical Gonzaga squad is their struggles defensively. An Oregon State team that’s shooting it extremely well should benefit from the Zags pushing tempo tonight, and it will all result in getting over a relatively moderate total here.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +72.2 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.