Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 01/27

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Detroit Pistons +10.5 @ Cleveland Cavaliers (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on NBA TV

Give credit to the Pistons for not folding after Jaden Ivey went down for the season. Instead they’ve gone 8-4 straight up, with a few narrow losses thrown in, and are being carried by Cade Cunningham. Things definitely get tougher in Cleveland tonight, but this is the largest number of points Detroit has caught since mid-December, and I’m taking them. The Cavs have looked rough in recent games with some of their early-season magic wearing off and Evan Mobley obviously not at full strength. If their defense continues to struggle, the Pistons should find a way to stay inside this number.

NBA (0.5 Unit) Memphis Grizzlies/NY Knicks Over 241 (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 6:30 PM CT on MSG

It’s a good thing Tom Thibodeau isn’t as obsessed with defense this season as he’s been in the past, because it will be difficult tonight. This Memphis offense is scary for a team like the Knicks, as they can use their tempo to force New York into a track meet again. That tends to happen when the Knicks face an up-tempo team, case in point being Saturday when they combined with Sacramento for 263 points.

The Grizzlies are an even more fast-paced squad that’s averaging 124.8 PPG in the month of January, and will want to show out in front of the MSG crowd. But pushing the Knicks into an up-tempo affair means their elite offense that is 5th in scoring, 3rd in effective field goal rate, and 2nd in offensive rating will go into overdrive. That should be a recipe for plenty of points, and the fact that this total is hanging on the north side of the key 240 number is a sign that a shootout is coming.

NBA Prop Picks (Odds via DraftKings)

0.5 Unit - Domantas Sabonis Over 19.5 Points (-110)

0.5 Unit - Nikola Jokic Over 13.5 Rebounds (+105)

0.5 Unit - Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 12.5 Rebounds (-110)

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Iowa St +1.5 @ Arizona (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 9:30 PM CT on ESPN

Hopefully the first 30 minutes of Saturday’s game for my Cyclones woke them up for the next leg of this Arizona trip, because they can’t afford to play like that. Big12 road games are tough, even when the opponent was in the Pac12 last year, so if they got the wakeup call they needed, they should come out with a win here.

These teams are tied for second in the conference, but take a look at the bottom half of the standings. That’s the list of teams Arizona has beaten to get to 7-1, so I’m not particularly afraid of this squad. The Wildcats are uncharacteristically poor from long range this season, so they have to try to score inside against an elite ISU defense. I think that creates an advantage for the Clones that they can leverage throughout the game, along with their much deeper roster. Bottom line is Arizona’s schedule is papering over a down year for this program as they’ve struggled against top competition, and I think that continues here.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +72.2 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.