Locks
NFL (1 Unit) 2-Team 6 Point Teaser (-110; Odds via Caesars)
Washington Commanders +12 @ Philadelphia Eagles: 2:00 PM CT on FOX
Personnel wise and probably schematically, Philadelphia has a big advantage in this game, and my guess is they win. But the one place they don’t have the personnel advantage is at quarterback, as a hobbled Jalen Hurts is not at the level Jayden Daniels is playing right now. That might end up being the difference in the game, and it certainly gives me more confidence that Washington will be able to stay competitive today.
They’ve already played the Eagles tight twice this season, losing by 8 when Hurts was healthy, and winning by 3 when Hurts went out early with a concussion. And playing every game tight is just what they do, as they haven’t earned the nickname Cardiac Commanders for nothing. I don’t think they’ll be able to stop Saquon Barkley (the ’85 Bears might have trouble with that) but they didn’t in the regular season games either. This is just too big of a number to pass up on a team that’s always in it with a quarterback who’s playing with no fear, so expect a fun one in the NFC today.
Buffalo Bills +8 @ Kansas City Chiefs: 5:30 PM CT on CBS
Fans of the NFL in recent years have to suspicious of what’s coming here – Patrick Mahomes, and Travis Kelce, and Taylor Swift, and the refs all combining to create the magical elixir of Chiefs postseason success. But that doesn’t mean it will be anything other than a tight game down to the wire, as has been the case whenever these teams get together. The past 5 meetings have been within 4 points going into the 4th quarter, and not since 2020 have the Chiefs beaten Buffalo by more than this number.
It just has the feel of a game decided on a kick at the end, and in that case I’d definitely prefer to be holding a full possession’s worth of points with Buffalo. All that Kansas City seems to do this season is win by the narrowest of margins, starting with a toe in the season opener, and Mahomes just does not cover big numbers like this. The Bills will have to keep playing mistake-free football here, but they’re on an historic run of doing just that which always keeps you in the game against the Chiefs, so I’m taking the points on this adjusted number.
NFL Prop Picks (Odds via DraftKings)
1 Unit – Jayden Daniels Over 229.5 Passing Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Jalen Hurts Under 31.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
1 Unit – Saquon Barkley Over 126.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
0.75 Unit – Saquon Barkley Longest Rush Over 24.5 Yards (-110)
0.25 Unit – Kenneth Gainwell Over 8.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Terry McLaurin Over 62.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.25 Unit – Dyami Brown Over 40.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Austin Ekeler Over 26.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.25 Unit – Terry McLaurin Anytime TD (+140)
0.25 Unit – AJ Brown Anytime TD (+160)
0.25 Unit – Jayden Daniels Anytime TD (+200)
0.25 Unit – Zach Ertz Anytime TD (+300)
1 Unit – Travis Kelce Over 70.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.25 Unit – Travis Kelce Alt Over 79.5 Receiving Yards (+130)
0.5 Unit – Travis Kelce Over 6.5 Receptions (-110)
0.75 Unit – Josh Allen Over 49.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
0.25 Unit – Josh Allen Alt Over 59.5 Rushing Yards (+140)
0.75 Unit – Khalil Shakir Over 58.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Khalil Shakir Over 5.5 Receptions (+110)
0.75 Unit – Dalton Kincaid Over 32.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.25 Unit – Noah Gray Over 16.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.25 Unit – Dawson Knox Over 15.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick has gained +74.2 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
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