Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 01/24

Locks

NBA (0.75 Unit) New Orleans Pelicans @ Memphis Grizzlies -7 First Half (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on NBATV

What Memphis tends to do to bad teams in their home games is pretty astounding, and I think another example is coming here. The Grizzlies have an average first half margin in home games of plus-9.1 points, and that’s against all opponents. They’ve played 8 home games against teams that are headed for the lottery like the Pelicans are, and that average margin jumps to 11.9 points and they’re 7-1 against this spread.

They’ve also faced the Pelicans twice already this season, building up halftime leads of 11 at home and 13 on the road, so they know how to get up on this team quickly. The Pels might have strung together 4 straight wins against bad and depleted opponents, but it gets real here. So a New Orleans team that is 29th in first half scoring on the road and 28th in average first half margin for road games should find themselves in a big early hole tonight.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Michigan @ Purdue -2.5 First Half (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on FOX

The spot here sets up so well for Purdue, I just have to roll with them to come out firing. Last time the Boilermakers took the court, I pointed out how strong a first half bet they were at home and they delivered. It ended there though, as they managed to cough up a 16 point lead and lose, so I have to imagine they will be highly motivated to defend home court tonight against a high-quality opponent.

Michigan is going to be a tough test for Purdue, especially with the size the Wolverines can deploy. But some cracks have been showing with this squad in recent games, needing overtime to beat Northwestern at home after trailing at half, and an inexplicable loss to Minnesota. I think Purdue’s strong perimeter defense in a very tough road environment will help neutralize Michigan’s shooting early on, and carry the Boilers to another solid halftime lead.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Penn St/Iowa Over 167.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 8:00 PM CT on FS1

This should be an absolute track meet between two teams well-suited to exploit the other’s defensive weakness. Everything is a weakness for Iowa right now after two ugly performances, but getting to play a home game against an opponent willing to match the Hawkeyes’ style should be a good cure for their problems.

Iowa’s pace in home games is always cranked to the max, and a Penn State squad that is 30th in adjusted tempo will gladly play that kind of game. And Iowa has to get out of this shooting slump eventually, they’re too good from all over the floor as a top-5 team in effective field goal rate, plus Penn State will give them all the looks they want from deep.

But there’s been zero defensive effort from the Hawkeyes, a lot of which is by design, and the Nittany Lions should carve them up inside. With Ace Baldwin back in the lineup, PSU can get inside and score at will on anyone, especially a team ranked 328th in two-point percentage defense. Penn State doesn’t take three’s, so a continuous layup line combined with Iowa’s positive shooting regression should validate metrics site projections of mid-170’s or more.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +75.7 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.