Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 01/23

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Miami Heat @ Milwaukee Bucks -7 (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 6:30 PM CT on TNT

As the Jimmy Butler saga rolls on with another suspension, the Heat are forced to play a high-profile game against a team that’s on fire. This line opened relatively short at around 5 points due to Milwaukee being on a back-to-back with travel, but that’s not the case anymore with last night's game in New Orleans cancelled by weather. There was also concern about the availability for last night of Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton, so monitor their statuses coming into tonight.

But this line wouldn’t be moving up sharply if those worries for the Bucks were serious. I’m not worried, and I see another game where Milwaukee keeps things rolling, especially with this being a home game where they’ve thrived lately. Their past 5 home games have all ended in double-digit wins, and I expect to see another here against a Miami team that’s distracted and one of the league’s worst ATS teams on the road.

NBA (1 Unit) Toronto Raptors/Atlanta Hawks Over 233.5 (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 6:30 PM CT on TSN

I don’t understand this total one bit, especially not why it’s been on the way down. Keep an eye out for injury news impacting Trae Young, but there’s nothing about that at the time of this writing. With Young in the lineup, or maybe even without, the Hawks are obviously more than capable of shredding this bad and disinterested Raptors defense like they did in the first meeting.

That was a 136-point outburst by the Hawks up in Toronto as the game finished with 243 points, and the Hawks are a far better over team at home than on the road. They lead the NBA in home overs with a 14-5 record, and should be in line for an offensive bounce back off last night’s poor performance. I think Toronto can also take advantage of that lack of rest for the Hawks, especially if they continue to get to the rim against a poor interior Atlanta defense. I think this one goes well over the total and I’ll take the discounted number here.

NBA (0.5 Unit) Boston Celtics/LA Lakers Over 218.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on TNT

The Lakers have had trouble scoring lately, but reviving the historic Lakers/Celtics rivalry should help to wake them up. LA should also have a big personnel advantage in this game, as their stars are healthy while Boston’s two most important defensive pieces in Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday are both out. This is also a back-to-back for Boston, who had to play the Clippers last night who took them to overtime, so that short-handed roster will be tired tonight. That should take a toll on Boston’s otherwise strong defense, increase the tempo tonight, and help push this over what is a fairly low total.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) South Dakota/North Dakota Over 175 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 7:00 PM CT on Summit League Network

I love this league so much, you can almost always count on nobody having any interest in defense. That will surely be the case tonight, as South Dakota checks in at 358th and North Dakota 351st in adjusted defensive efficiency. You’ll also get pace, as the Coyotes play at the 3rd-fastest adjusted tempo in the whole country, and the Hawks have shown plenty of willingness to get out and run.

There won’t be many three’s attempted in this game but that’s ok, as these teams have horrible two-point defenses and a layup line is an even more effective way to reach a sky-high total. This number might be high, but it opened extremely high and has done nothing but attract over money, something you rarely see in college hoops. It’s still not even close to some of the metrics projections out there, so I think we see this easily clear the total tonight.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) UC Riverside Team Total Under 68.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on ESPN+

I just don’t see how Riverside can score against Irvine’s defense in this game, especially since they’ve already proven they can’t. It’s rare in the Big West that a rematch happens so soon, but these teams just played less than 3 weeks ago and Riverside struggled in that one, only managing 57 points as they shot 31.7% from the field. Granted, that was a road game, but the Highlanders just don’t have the offense to compete here.

They’re ranked 298th in effective field goal rate, 256th in three-point percentage, and 305th in two-point percentage. So going up against an Irvine defense that’s 8th nationally in adjusted efficiency and 11th in opponent effective field goal rate is a tough ask. Irvine is only allowing 65.0 regulation PPG in Big West play, and I’ll need to see Riverside prove they can score against that defense before I believe it.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +74.6 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.