Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 01/22

Locks

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Utah First Half Team Total Under 26.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:00 PM CT on ESPN+

Utah might have won three straight to resurrect their season, but those opponents should be taken with a grain of salt, and now they’re headed into the meatgrinder. Utah’s introduction to the Big12 has actually been fairly tame on the whole, but their road trips to elite-level opponents have not gone well for them.

The Utes only managed 17 first half points at Baylor, then 25 when they visited my Cyclones, and now things get real. I’ve ridden this trend of visitors to Houston staying under their team total all season, and I’m not stopping now. Especially not when it’s a number that’s on par with what was posted for much better offenses than Utah brings. The Utes never seem to escape their road shooting woes, as both their effective field goal rate and three-point percentage drop about 9 percentage points away from home.

Houston is the toughest place to score early points arguably in the country, and the Cougars should be raring to go after a couple of recent poor defensive performances by their standards. I think that keeps Utah very quiet and under this first half team total.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Kansas/TCU Under 136.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN2

If you’ve been blindly betting the under in Kansas games this season, congratulations on your early retirement. The Jayhawks have a shocking 15-2 record to the under so far this year which is best in the country, along with the 4th-lowest plus/minus to the total. They just don’t have much in the way of competent or consistent offense, not even trying to shoot from three due to their lack of good shooters, and scoring the fewest points from the free throw line in the country.

That’s shocking for a Bill Self team, and shows their reliance on Hunter Dickinson scoring on the inside. But TCU is able to counter with good size down low, and they have a strong transition defense that will prevent KU from scoring on run-outs which is their other preferred method of scoring. The Kansas defense is absolutely elite though, ranking 4th in adjusted efficiency and 7th in opponent effective field goal rate. That defense travels too, as they’ve already held two conference opponents under 50 points in road games, so look for this to be a typical KU defensive slugfest.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Kansas St @ Baylor -6.5 First Half (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on ESPNU

Kansas State spent a boatload of NIL money to build a competitive team, and they got basically nothing for it. The Wildcats have dropped 5 straight conference games, and tonight they head to Waco to visit what should be an angry Baylor squad. The Bears were stunned by TCU on Sunday thanks to an ugly second half collapse, and should be out to atone for that tonight. I think they can, thanks to one of the better first half advantages in the country.

Baylor is an elite first half team, but really dials it up at home where they’re second nationally in average first half margin at plus-19.9 points. They’ve kept that up in Big12 play, with home halftime leads of 20 against Utah, 15 against Cincinnati, and 7 against TCU on Sunday before the meltdown. Kansas State has had very little success in first halves during Big12 play, averaging an 8.3 point deficit and really looking rough against the class of the conference. Baylor isn’t what they used to be, but an angry version of the Bears against the struggling Wildcats should jump out to a big early lead.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Miami @ Stanford -10.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 10:00 PM CT on ESPNU

Things can’t get much worse for Miami, as this team looks to have completely quit on the season. The main problem for the Hurricanes is the team knowing it’s a lost season, and putting in zero effort, especially on the defensive end. The Canes are down to 341st in adjusted defensive efficiency, 357th in opponent effective field goal rate, and 363rd in opponent three-point percentage, so a Stanford team with a quietly good offense should shred them.

But this number is coming in at a discount because metrics sites aren’t computing the mental and emotional state of this Miami team, or the cross-country travel they have to make for this game. Those are factors that I’d consider far more important in a situation like this with a dead team, especially one that has only kept one ACC game to single digits all year. Stanford is an improving team under Kyle Smith, and have handled business at home this season, beating the Virginia teams who had to make the long trip by more than this margin. I think they do it again with ease against a team that really doesn’t even want to lace them up tonight.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +73.3 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.