Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 01/21

Locks

NBA (1 Unit) Cleveland Cavaliers/Charlotte Hornets First Quarter Over 57.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN

With a full game total of 237 points, this first quarter number should be higher just naturally. It especially should be higher considering the teams involved here, as both the Cavs and Hornets are explosive first quarter offenses. Cleveland is far more high-scoring to start games on the road, ranking 2nd in the league for first quarter scoring in away games. Charlotte meanwhile is 5th in first quarter points at home, and with this being their first home game after a long west coast road trip, I’d expect some defensive lapses out of a tired team.

That would be normal for the Hornets, who allow 31.3 first quarter points in home games this season, 4th-most in the league. Cleveland is a much better defensive team, but after getting blasted by OKC in their last game, I’d expect them to be looking to make a statement on ESPN tonight. That should fuel early scoring in this one, and while totals have been weird in the NBA lately, it’s a spot where I have to trust the numbers on what I see as a low total.

NBA (0.75 Unit) Toronto Raptors/Sacramento Kings Over 223.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on NBC Sports CA

Like I said, NBA totals have been weird lately, but this number is just too low for the situation these teams are in. Both are on no rest after high possessions games last night, so I don’t have a lot of faith in either team putting in great defensive effort. Neither the Raptors nor the Kings are good over teams, in fact they’re very good under teams, but having both on a back-to-back counts for more than what I’m seeing in this total.

I also don’t think books have adjusted quite enough to Sacramento’s raising of their scoring floor lately, which started well before Domantas Sabonis returned. Having Sabonis back simultaneously improves their scoring and worsens the defense, so I think there are plenty of reasons to like these teams to get over what’s a low number even by current NBA weirdness standards.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Queens First Half Team Total Over 41.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+

We’re really off the beaten path with this one, but it’s a solid play. Even hardcore college hoops followers would probably need a couple guesses to get which program is second only to Michigan for first half points scored at home this season. That’d be the Queens University Royals, who have a penchant for running it up early, even in conference games. They’re tearing up the ASUN at 6-0 in conference, and it’s started early as they’re averaging 43.3 first half points in those games, 4 of which have been on the road.

Their highest outputs of 50 and 46 were the two home games, and I think they’re coming for more here. North Alabama is not going to slow them down, as the Lions try to drag tempo down to compensate for their 340th-ranked defense, but it hasn’t been working lately. They also get torched from beyond the arc, which is the specialty of Queens who’s 20th in three-point attempts this season. The Royals also play very fast and should be able to dictate tempo on their home floor, so look for another big outburst from them in the first half here.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 23-22 (-2.47 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Extreme Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.