Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 01/16

Locks

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Michigan -9.5 @ Minnesota (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on FS1

Sorry Gopher fans, but there’s very obviously a double-digit gap between these two squads right now. Michigan has been a big surprise in Dusty May’s first season there, and the Wolverines are 5 total points in their 3 losses from being undefeated. They’ve been exerting their will inside against everyone, ranking 1st in the country for two-point percentage thanks to two elite 7-footers in their regular rotation.

The Gophers just can’t score enough to keep up, can’t shoot from deep well enough to play catch-up, and should get rolled again. Minnesota has faced upper-tier Big10 competition 3 times so far this season and lost by an average of 19.7 points, so I’m expecting a clear double-digit victory by Michigan at The Barn tonight.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) South Dakota St Team Total Over 83.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on Summit League Network

A couple of tough road losses to drop the Jackrabbits down to 1-2 in conference play can’t be sitting well with them, and I’d expect SDSU to take it out on a bad defense tonight. They should be able to get whatever they want against North Dakota, who could care less about defense. The Fighting Hawks rank 345th in adjusted defensive efficiency and 357th in effective field goal defense, so it’s no wonder they’ve allowed 84.0 PPG in conference play. So this is a fair number from that standpoint, but with metrics sites projecting upper-80’s for SDSU plus their motivation angle, I’m expecting a big number out of the Jacks tonight.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Oral Roberts/South Dakota Over 172.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on Summit League Network

This is a monstrosity of a total, but these are two of the only teams from one of the only leagues where it’s actually not that unreasonable of a number. There will be zero defense in this game, as Oral Roberts ranks 360th and South Dakota 357th in adjusted defensive efficiency. ORU’s offensive strength is South Dakota’s defensive weakness, as the Golden Eagles are a volume three-point shooting team with a good percentage facing a Coyotes defense that’s 356th in opponent three-point percentage.

South Dakota meanwhile plays at an insanely frenetic pace, creates run-outs, and is excellent at getting to the free throw line. ORU has struggled against tempo all season, they give up a lot of layups, plus they’re extremely foul prone so I see USD’s style working well here. I’ve seen metrics projections going as high as the mid-180’s for this game, so with two teams guaranteed to play matador defense I’ll take a shot on the high total.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Cal Fullerton @ UC Irvine -19.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 9:00 PM CT on ESPN+

Irvine is a really good basketball team, and I don’t think they’re getting enough love in the market, especially against this kind of opponent. The Anteaters have one of the best defenses in the country, ranked 10th in adjusted efficiency and 18th in effective field goal defense. Most importantly they defend without fouling, so they won’t fall into Fullerton’s style of creating a foul fest and disjointing the game.

Fullerton loves to foul though, and if they do that against Irvine, the country’s 3rd-best free-throw shooting team will pad their margin at the line. What I’m really not seeing though is how a Titans offense that’s bottom-40 in the country for shooting and efficiency can score much at all against this UCI defense. It’s been a problem in other Big West games, leading to a couple of conference losses by 30-plus points, and I can see that again tonight.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +69.9 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.