Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 01/15

Locks

NBA (1 Unit) Memphis Grizzlies/San Antonio Spurs First Half Over 117 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on Fanduel Sports SW

Books just shouldn’t hang first half totals like this that are less than 50% of the full-game number, especially when a team like Memphis is involved. Grizzlies games just get wild early on, as they lead the NBA in first half scoring including averaging 61.6 points in road games. They’ll be the driver of this game early on behind their league-leading pace of play, and should pull the Spurs into an up-tempo game.

San Antonio has been more of a pace taker than setter this season, and when they face up-tempo opponents they tend to get into high-scoring first halves even though they’re only 18th in first half scoring at home. But with Memphis games I’m always looking for reasonable first half totals, and this one should be easily reachable.

NCAA Basketball (1 Unit) Kansas @ Iowa St -3.5 First Half (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN2

I’ve talked before about how strong my Cyclones are in first halves, primarily in the points department as they rank 14th in first half scoring. But they also crush whoever walks into Hilton Coliseum before halftime as they’re 10th in average first half margin for home games. That has included high level competition like Marquette who they led by 9 at the break, and Baylor who they led by 8 after 20 minutes.

Kansas should be no different, especially with how slowly the Jayhawks have started in a lot of games this season. They’re extremely lucky to be 3-1 in league play so far as they’ve already faced halftime deficits of 1, 6, and 13 points against a schedule that’s not even close to difficult by Big12 standards. This is by far KU’s toughest game yet and I don’t think they’re ready for it, as the atmosphere at Hilton should help this Clones squad to another solid halftime lead.

NCAA Basketball (1 Unit) West Virginia First Half Team Total Under 24.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN+

Speaking of first half dominance, Iowa State wishes to one day be what Houston has been for years, and continues to be this season. The Cougars are playing angry in every game, flexing their top-rated defense at every opportunity and this game will be no different. Houston has allowed just 22.5 first half points per game this season, including 19.8 at home and 21.5 in conference play. No Big12 opponent has crossed this total before halftime, and West Virginia won’t either.

The Mountaineers should get credit for playing as well as they have, but they face a nearly impossible task today without any balanced scoring available to them. With Tucker DeVries still out, WVU’s only option on offense is Javon Small who Houston will focus on neutralizing. This should also be a game played at a snail’s pace, with WVU 310th and Houston 360th in adjusted tempo so possessions will be scarce, especially early on. I just don’t see how the Mountaineers have enough opportunities for their limited offense to reach this number before halftime.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +70.9 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.