Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 01/14

Locks

NBA (0.75 Unit) Lauri Markkanen Over 26.5 Points (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 7:00 PM CT on Chicago SportsNet

I’m pretty surprised by this number, but then I was surprised by Curry’s prop numbers last night and he had the quietest scoring game of his life. So if you’re fading what makes sense in the NBA right now, you’re doing pretty well, but I just can’t go ultra-contrarian with this one. This total comes in below what Markkanen is averaging on the season at 27.9, which is strange considering the situation. He’s going back home to Chicago to get some more revenge on his old team, and that’s already been a profitable angle this season.

The Jazz star dropped 47 on the Bulls earlier this season, albeit in a double-OT game, but he still took 33 shots including 17 three’s in that game. So the Jazz, with no intention of playing organized basketball on a nightly basis, will let Markkanen do whatever he wants in this game again. Considering his old squad is 26th in defensive efficiency and loves to play fast, the opportunity should be there again to have a big revenge game.

NBA (0.75 Unit) Michael Porter Jr Over 25.5 Points (-120; Odds via DraftKings): 7:00 PM CT on Gulf Coast Sports

This is a pretty low number for Porter against one of the worst defenses in the league. That’s the best time to target MPJ to have a big night, as the Nets aren’t likely to get run out by a fellow bad team which prevents him from sitting out late in the game. Porter’s minutes have been very consistent lately though, and that has helped keep his scoring very consistent as well, going 11-3 over this total in December and January.

Included in that stretch is a 35-point night against the Pelicans, who sit 27th in defensive efficiency and dead last in two-point percentage defense so MPJ can get whatever he wants at the rim. I think that all adds up to another big scoring night for Brooklyn’s main offensive threat who always seems to get his shooting volume.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Oral Roberts/Denver Over 155.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on Summit League Network

A Denver game finally went under, putting them at a mere 15-1 to the over this season. It was bound to happen, and I’m looking to capitalize on the market reaction here, as money tends to leave a team alone the game after a crazy streak is broken. I still think this is a good matchup for points though, and at a number that’s considerably lower than recent games for Denver.

The first under of the year for the Pioneers wasn’t due to improved defense or a lack of pace, neither team could hit from outside. I think that changes here with Oral Roberts who loves to fire from deep, going up against the country’s 362nd-ranked three-point defense. Oral Bob can’t really guard anything either, especially inside as they’re 280th in effective field goal defense. So Denver’s style will be a tough matchup for their defense, the elevation will have an impact on defensive legs, and I think we clear this discounted number.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 22-30 (-3.28 Units) – Recommend: Fade

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.