Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 01/13

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) San Antonio Spurs +7.5 @ OKC Thunder (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on NBC

Earlier this season when these teams met, there were a couple of double-digit spreads so this is less egregious than those. But it’s still a case of books just leaning too heavily on the power rating and ignoring what’s in front of their eyes. That’s commendable for robotic sports bettors who stick to their numbers, but some of us have to mix in the eye test on occasion.

The eye test is telling me that the Spurs simply have OKC’s number, beating them when the Thunder looked unstoppable, and demolishing them when OKC has been going through these struggles. So I can’t accept that these teams are 7.5 points apart from each other tonight, not when San Antonio has beaten the spread by 21.5 points on average across the 3 meetings. The Spurs were probably looking ahead to this game when the Wolves mounted that epic comeback on Sunday, so I think we get a focused effort out of them to at least stay within this big number.

NBA (1 Unit) Steph Curry Over 4.5 Made Three’s (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 10:00 PM CT on NBC

The first words through my brain when I saw this prop were “are you kidding me”. This number is below his season average of 4.7 makes per game from deep, which is lazy oddsmaking on its own, but then you have to factor in the opponent. Curry has torn the Blazers apart this season, scoring no less than 35 points in the three meetings, and going nuclear from deep with 7, 9, and 12 made three’s. And somehow Portland has won all three of those games, but this is a good opportunity for the Warriors to get revenge on national TV with Deni Avdija out. So expect Curry to go wild again, possibly getting this total in the first half, and take the ladder plays below if you have access to them.

Bonus Ladder Picks (Odds via DraftKings)

0.5 Unit – Over 5.5 Made Three’s (+155)

0.25 Unit – Over 6.5 Made Three’s (+300)

0.25 Unit – Over 7.5 Made Three’s (+575)

0.1 Unit – Over 8.5 Made Three’s (+1060)

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Texas A&M/Tennessee Under 161.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:00 PM CT on SEC Network

This number is predictably high, thanks to Texas A&M’s pace and three-point shooting in Bucky McMillan’s first season at the helm. The Aggies have put up some impressive numbers this season thanks to that style, but a lot of it has come against weak competition and higher-level teams that have suspect defenses. They’ve never had to go on the road to visit an elite defensive team, until tonight, and I think that makes this total too high.

Tennessee is still an excellent defensive club at 13th in adjusted defensive efficiency, especially when Rick Barnes needs them to be. They need it here after getting trounced at Florida over the weekend, but the Vols have been much better at home this season. They can also neutralize A&M’s style, boasting a defense that’s 19th in three-point percentage allowed, and playing at the 211th adjusted tempo which they should be able to dictate at home. That just makes this number too high for me, so I’ll be on the under.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Iowa State/Kansas Under 152.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN

Ok, I give up, no more over bets with my Cyclones in conference play unless something drastic changes. The same pace isn’t quite there to clear big totals as it was in the non-conference slate, and the defense has definitely intensified against Big12 opponents. Defense should be a priority tonight, for both teams, and I see that holding down scoring despite a couple of good offensive teams taking the floor.

Kansas needs a reset on the defensive end, having given up far too many points to relatively weak Big12 teams so far in conference play. This has not been the same Jayhawks team that put together a top-15 defense in a lot of categories, but a high-profile home spot against a rival should wake them up. KU is somewhat limited offensively though, and Iowa State’s 2nd-ranked defense by adjusted efficiency will clamp down and win the turnover battle. But in a big game like this at The Phog, I see intensity being dialed to 11 and that should keep scoring lower.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 22-28 (-2.98 Units) – Recommend: Fade

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.