Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 01/12

Locks

NFL (0.5 Unit) Jayden Higgins Over 29.5 Receiving Yards (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 7:15 PM CT on ABC

I confess to not having a good feel for this game. With a field goal spread and very low total, playing either of those or their derivative numbers is uncomfortable in my opinion. But I feel like Houston will need to throw in this game, as their rush offense ranks 30th in EPA and has been a problem all season. We’ve seen the Texans throwing early in games down the stretch of the season, and it should continue here, but maybe not to their most dangerous weapon which is Nico Collins.

Pittsburgh has the ability to lock down top wide receivers, and they should look to keep Collins from being the one to burn them. That’s where I think Higgins gets his opportunity to step up, as he’s been the receiver to see increased work when Collins is either out or being taken away by the defense this season. Higgins has developed a strong rapport with CJ Stroud, going over this total in 9 games on the year, and I think he has a good situation to make a big contribution again tonight.

NBA (0.5 Unit) Philadelphia 76ers/Toronto Raptors First Quarter Over 57.5 (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 6:30 PM CT on TSN

These back-to-back meetings between teams fascinate me from a scheduling perspective, but despite the weirdness I think it presents good opportunities to find value. A game like yesterday’s was an outlier for both squads, as neither team could make a shot and it caused the first quarter to go well under. But with the same exact total posted for tonight’s first quarter, it’s obvious that regression to the mean is expected.

I don’t anticipate these teams to shoot 42.5% overall and an ugly 20.6% from deep again, as the previous two meetings saw much better shooting and thus first quarters of 76 and 61 points. The Sixers have been playing wild first quarters all year, and this is a low number with them involved, so I think the universe corrects itself with a higher-scoring start tonight.

NBA (0.5 Unit) LA Lakers Team Total Over 118.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on NBCS-CA

The Kings have been in a couple of very low-scoring games lately, interspersed with nights like Friday where they allowed 137 points to Golden State. Don’t count on the low-scoring games being a trend, as this is still a very poor defensive team that gives up 121.4 PPG and 1.164 points per possession which puts them 28th in defensive efficiency.

When facing a team that can really shoot it like the Lakers, who are top-3 in field goal percentage, effective field goal rate, and true shooting percentage, Sacramento is liable to give up big numbers. The Lakers have already done it to them twice, hanging 125 and 127 points in the two meetings, neither of which they had their full complement of offensive weapons. With the Kings having just played last night, look for that defense to be even worse than usual, so I think this is a number the Lakers can clear relatively easily.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Arkansas-Pine Bluff/Prairie View A&M Over 165.5 (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 6:00 PM CT on SWAC TV

I have to go deep in my bag for this one as the college hoops schedule couldn’t possibly get any worse, even for a Monday. But value is value, and I see an edge here with two teams that are definitely going to get up and down the floor in a hurry. Both the Panthers and Golden Lions love to run, with Prairie View ranked 15th and Pine Bluff 26th in adjusted tempo this season. Neither can play much defense either, especially Pine Bluff who is 340th in adjusted defensive efficiency.

Both teams know exactly who they are on offense though, staying away from the three-point line and instead wanting to get right to the rim in a hurry. That layup line will either result in lots of quick, easy buckets, or will create a parade to the free throw line. These teams can’t keep their hands to themselves, ranking as the 4th and 18th-most foul prone teams in the country. They’re both excellent from the charity stripe too, so that’s another route to easy points and I think the right formula exists to clear this big number.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 23-28 (-2.58 Units) – Recommend: Fade

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.