Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 01/09

Locks

College Football Playoff (1 Unit) Indiana -3.5 vs Oregon (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on ESPN

A lot is being made of the revenge angle here for Oregon, and honestly I think that’s overblown. It’s just a way of finding another angle to doubt Indiana, which is a notion everyone needs to dispel right now. The Hoosiers are doing to college football what UConn did to the NCAA Tournament a couple years ago, with the best coach, the best defense, and a team-wide desire to absolutely bury every opponent.

When they went to Eugene and beat the Ducks in Week 7, the Hoosiers hadn’t truly hit their stride yet, and that game wasn’t as close as the 10-point final margin would indicate. If you’re going to tell me that Oregon has been a wrecking ball in the 8 games since, I would point out that almost all their opponents either can’t stop anything or can’t get out of their own way offensively.

Case in point has been their two CFP opponents: a James Madison team that was completely outmatched, and a Texas Tech team that melted down with silly turnovers. So I think Oregon is overvalued here, almost by default considering how brand name recognition plays into it. But everyone better accept that Indiana is the real deal, with a nasty defense, the Heisman winner, and the best coach in all of football who's on a mission, so maybe when they roll tonight they’ll get the respect they deserve.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Miami-OH +1.5 @ Toledo (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:00 PM CT on CBSSN

This line flipped favorites after Miami opened laying around 1.5 points, and I have to seize the opportunity to take the points now. Metrics sites are pretty unanimous in making the Redhawks the favorite here, and it’s not just their perfect 16-0 record or 10-3 ATS mark. This is a shooting mismatch, and it’s shooting that has propelled Miami to where they are.

Toledo is not the Rockets team of recent years, with the offense not on the same level. The defense is still struggling though, particularly in their effective field goal rate allowed that is 318th in the country, and a three-point percentage allowed that ranks 280th nationally. Miami’s sharpshooters will take advantage, and even though the Rockets can score inside, those buckets don’t counter three’s very well. I’d also argue that Miami is the more tested team, as Toledo’s 3-0 conference record comes against three of the four worst MAC teams. So this is going to be a shock to the Rockets system, and I think Miami extends their unbeaten streak.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 26-32 (-1.89 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Extreme Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.