Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 01/08

Locks

College Football Playoff (1 Unit) 2-Team 6 Point Teaser (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on ESPN

Ole Miss (+9.5) vs Miami

I think this might well be a field goal game in either direction, and honestly I’m tempted by the Ole Miss moneyline and alternate spreads, but this is the safest route possible. This Rebels team has belief and togetherness, two very dangerous intangibles that can carry them a long way. They also have the ability to do to Miami what Ohio State stupidly did not, which is be aggressive and push tempo.

That can help neutralize what has become an excellent defense, particularly in the pass rush, plus the rushing of Kewan Lacy and escapability of Trinidad Chambliss are two things the Hurricanes aren’t used to. And on a weekly basis, every game becomes the biggest game of Mario Cristobal’s career, which is a recipe for disaster given his track record. So the only way I see this game being a double-digit margin is if Ole Miss somehow runs away with it, and I’ll take this big number in that situation.

Ole Miss/Miami Over (46.5)

There’s been plenty of sharp money hitting this total when it was at 51, driving it up 1.5 points, so I want to erase that move and get even more value. It’s a strength-on-weakness situation with both offenses against the opposing defenses, and that should lead to plenty of points. The most glaring of those comes with Miami’s run game behind Mark Fletcher against a Rebels defense that struggles against inside zone.

The Canes have not asked Carson Beck to throw at all late in the season, and they shouldn’t have to here with Fletcher’s gashing runs, but Ole Miss should have success through the air. Miami is elite against the run, but they can be thrown on if you neutralize the pass rush with tempo as I said should happen. Chambliss should have success in the middle of the field where Miami typically leaves big windows, and can move use that to open the run game for Lacy. Ole Miss can kick field goals from anywhere, and their red zone defense is very vulnerable, so that should add up to enough points to clear this adjusted total.

NBA (1 Unit) Dallas Mavericks Team Total Over 124.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on KJZZ

Shame on the Thunder for falling on their face last night, almost losing to the lowly Jazz, and not even clearing their team total in overtime. Something is broken in that team and I can’t wait to fade them tomorrow, but in the meantime, the show must go on. That show being jumping on the opposing team total whenever the Jazz take the floor, especially in Utah.

This is going to be a tough one for their defense, having just played a hard-fought OT game last night before traveling back home to face a rested Mavs squad. That’s not going to help their league-worst defense that’s allowing 129.5 PPG at home this season, and their games so far on no rest have cleared the total by 13.1 points on average. Dallas doesn’t have anything close to an elite offense, but it doesn’t take much to torch the Jazz, as they did in the first meeting with 129 points in regulation before falling in OT. Cooper Flagg went nuclear in that game and he should be able to again tonight, helping to carry his squad over this team total.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Denver/South Dakota St Over 163.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 7:00 PM CT on Summit League Network

This total has come down a little bit, and I simply have to disagree with the move. The next time a Denver game goes under it will be the first all year, as the Pioneers are a perfect 14-0 to the over with the second-highest plus/minus to the total in the country.

They’re the newest crazy Summit League team and I’m here for it. A perfect record to the over is what you get when the defense is laughably bad, ranked 361st in adjusted efficiency and giving up the 9th-highest effective field goal rate in the country.

The Pioneers are also atrocious at defending the three, so points can rack up in a hurry that way. But they can also shoot it pretty well from deep, they’ll probably have to fire away to keep up here, and South Dakota State has allowed a lot of three-point production this season. With Denver’s past 5 D1 games averaging 174.4 PPG, this should just be a continuation of their incredible run of overs.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 25-32 (-2.34 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Extreme Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.