Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 01/07

Locks

NBA (1 Unit) OKC Thunder First Half Team Total Over 63.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on Fanduel Sports OK

The full-game team total for the Thunder here is 130.5 and there is no good reason why the first half number should be less than 50% of that. So I see value on this number more than the full-game one for a few reasons. Let’s start with the basic premise that the Thunder are probably going to be in a bad mood after consecutive losses, and take out their frustrations against one of the worst defenses the NBA has ever seen.

That means this has no chance of going to OT or having late fouls pad scoring, so you’d expect OKC to slow down later on. I think the Thunder take this opportunity against a putrid defense to fix some offensive issues, and nobody better than Utah who allows the most first half points per game. OKC has already done it to the Jazz twice, in Utah, dropping 67 and 74 before halftime, the second game being without SGA. I’m expecting the bounce back narrative to factor in, but the first half numbers for these teams are too stark to ignore as well.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) UConn/Providence Over 150.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on Peacock

When this year’s version of the Huskies hit the road, things seem to change pretty dramatically on defense. Certainly against top-tier opponents, as UConn has allowed some quality offenses to get the best of their 3rd-ranked defense by adjusted efficiency. Providence can be one of those teams to push the Huskies, as they have the kind of shooting, fast pace, and ability to get to the foul stripe that gives UConn issues when they’re away from Storrs.

Dynamic Friar freshman Stefan Vaaks should be able to have success scoring inside against the Huskies, but he’s major liability on the defensive end that really costs his team. But that helps drive an up-tempo affair here, and I don’t think Providence will be able to get many stops. UConn can score at will on anyone, they just don’t typically need to because of a favorable schedule and travel so far, but that changes here in a tough conference road game. Metrics sites have this in the mid-150’s and I see a good opportunity to jump on the over.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Iowa State/Baylor Over 155.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on Peacock

I’ve watched a lot of Iowa State basketball in my day, and this has not been a high-scoring series at all in recent years. The Cyclones have been too good defensively, and quite honestly the offense for Baylor hasn’t been that great the past couple of seasons. At least one of those things has changed drastically though, and it’s the tempo that my Clones are playing now.

Only a few years ago ISU was averaging the 304th-fastest offensive possession length, and now this season they’re up to 55th-fastest. Along with it has come elite level shooting, ranking 2nd in effective field goal rate, 2nd in three-point percentage, and 5th in adjusted offensive efficiency. I don’t think Baylor gets many stops, but the Bears can light it up when they need to and ISU is not very tested on the road. Look for a fast pace in this game to go along with excellent efficiency, a combination that bucks the trend of low-scoring meetings.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) St Thomas Team Total Over 88.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on Summit League Network

This is an incredible mismatch that is going to result in a ton of easy points for St Thomas tonight. The Tommies are an elite shooting team again this season, ranked 35th in effective field goal rate, but their specialty is inside the arc where they’re 3rd in two-point percentage. They’ll be able to get whatever they want tonight with South Dakota coming to town, as the Coyotes are 346th in two-point percentage defense, and allow the 2nd-highest split of points to come via the two.

South Dakota is just plain bad defensively, ranked 337th in adjusted efficiency and 339th in effective field goal percentage allowed, and also play a very fast tempo. The Tommies will have no problem running tonight, and all those easy buckets are going to pile up in a hurry as they clear this team total.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 24-32 (-2.77 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Extreme Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.