Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 01/05

Locks

NBA (1 Unit) Charlotte Hornets @ OKC Thunder -9.5 First Half (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 7:00 PM CT on Fanduel Sports OK

These opportunities don’t come around very often, so I want to take advantage tonight. I’m talking about OKC bounce back spots of course, as the Thunder only have 6 losses on the season now after falling last night in Phoenix. But more specifically I’m talking about a bounce back spot against a bad team, which has been incredibly lucrative for anyone betting on the Thunder in the first half of those games.

There are only three instances so far, but all three have seen OKC take a double-digit lead into the locker room at halftime and that’s what I think happens here. An angry Thunder team up against a Charlotte squad that plays limited defense is going to be trouble for the visitors, especially with the Hornets struggling to score on the road at just 56.6 first half points per game. I think we get a max effort from OKC here, and they should dominate a weak opponent early in this game.

NBA (1 Unit) Utah Jazz/Portland Trail Blazers Over 242.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on KUNP

Jazz games are wild at home, but you can’t tell me going on the road to visit another defenseless team won’t result in a ton of points. These teams put up 270 points in their first meeting and were on pace for 300 at halftime, although that was in Utah where things get wild. But the Jazz still have the third-best over record in the league with the highest plus/minus to the total, so venue isn’t particularly important to me.

What is important is facing a Portland team that while they might not be on Utah’s level for defensive awfulness, it’s still not good. The Blazers are a bottom-half team in every defensive metric, and also like to get out and run with the 6th-most possessions per game in the league. Pair that with the Jazz who are historically bad on defense and play incredibly up-tempo, and I see a game that might not hit 270 again but can certainly clear this total.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit) Lauri Markkanen Over 26.5 Points (-110; Odds via DraftKings)

The Markksman is coming off a 35-point performance against an excellent defense in Golden State, and a month of December where he averaged 27.1 PPG. This is a good matchup for him to stay hot, as Portland really doesn’t have anyone with the size and range to contain him. That’s why he went off for 32 in the first meeting, and I think he can clear this number in what should be an over environment.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Nebraska +2.5 @ Ohio State (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:30 PM CT on FS1

It’s time to stop ignoring Nebraska. What Fred Hoiberg is doing there needs to be appreciated more, and maybe this game will get them more appreciation. A couple of things worry me here, namely that it could be a letdown spot for the Huskers after a big home win over the weekend, and I don’t like taking points in this range. But the metrics sites make this about a one-point game, and I can see why.

What Nebraska is really good at is turning every game into a three-point shooting contest, as they both rely on and give up a ton of three-point production. What Ohio State is not particularly good at though is shooting three’s, so a big edge goes to Nebraska considering they’re shooting an incredible 40% from deep away from home this season. They also have a very disciplined defense that can keep OSU off the free throw line which the Buckeyes rely heavily on. I think that’s the recipe for another road upset, especially with the Buckeyes being just 3-7 ATS as a favorite this season.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Stephen F Austin +10.5 @ McNeese St (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on ESPN+

At 10-2 on the season, Stephen F Austin owns the 6th-best ATS record in the country and the 8th-best average ATS margin, so books have not been able to price them right. I think this is another case of them catching too many points, even though going against McNeese is tough when the Cowboys are at home. But this is a good schematic matchup for the visitor, and I think they can keep it to single digits.

SFA does an excellent job of defending inside, ranked 17th in two-point percentage defense, which helps to neutralize the McNeese offense that is heavily reliant on scoring inside. McNeese is also very vulnerable to three-point shooting, and SFA brings one of the best three-point offenses from the mid-major ranks. If the Lumberjacks can keep slowing the pace defensively and knock down three’s, they should stay within this big number.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 27-32 (+0.43 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Extreme Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.