Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 01/04

Locks

NFL (1 Unit) Dallas Cowboys/NY Giants First Half Over 24.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 12:00 PM CT on FOX

It’s only right that I finish the regular season with one more Cowboys bet. This is the only playable spread or game total of the entire game based on what we know, which is that Dak and theoretically most of the offense will at least play early on today. I won’t be surprised to see the backups in there eventually, but maybe not for the Giants who could use the reps for their developing quarterback.

With Jaxson Dart playing, the Giants will shred this Dallas defense that’s now ranked 32nd in defensive EPA and 31st in success rate allowed. It’s no wonder that they’ve already set the best first half over mark of 15-1 this season, and the Giants are right there with them at 10-3 to the first half over when either Dart or Jameis start. The Giants defense is similarly awful, and allow the 7th-most first half points per game, so in perfect weather conditions I’ll take the over here.

NFL (1 Unit) LA Rams -7.5 First Half @ Arizona Cardinals (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 3:25 PM CT on FOX

This week is eerily similar to a few weeks ago when the Rams came back west after taking an ugly loss at an NFC South team. LA got to play the Cardinals the week after their loss at Carolina, and it didn’t go well for Arizona as they faced a 14-point halftime deficit in an eventual 28-point loss.

That’s just normal for Arizona though, as they’re now 1-13 ATS on the first half spread in their past 14 divisional games. Sean McVay has said all week the starters would play, and now the Rams have motivation to get the 5-seed after the 49ers lost last night. McVay historically crushes Arizona from an ATS perspective, so I’m laying the big number early in this game.

NFL (1 Unit) Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots -7.5 First Half (+105; Odds via DraftKings): 3:25 PM CT on FOX

It’s a little chilly in Foxborough today, enough to make the Dolphins feel out of place who always struggle in sub-40-degree games. It’s not going to help that they have nothing to play for, are starting a rookie quarterback, and face a Patriots team that has to put up a strong early effort until it’s obvious Denver has secured the #1 seed. But I happen to think the Patriots will look to go make a statement early in this game, trying to pad stats for Drake Maye’s MVP campaign. The Pats are also 13-3 ATS in first halves this season, so with plenty of early motivation to run it up, look for a healthy halftime lead for the home team.

NFL Incentive-Based Prop Picks (Odds via DraftKings)

1 Unit – Drake Maye Over 245.5 Passing Yards (-110): Chasing the league MVP

0.5 Unit – Hunter Henry Over 4.5 Receptions (-110: Earns $250k with 5 catches

0.5 Unit – Hollywood Brown Over 27.5 Receiving Yards (-110): Earns $625k with 102 yards

0.25 Unit – Hollywood Brown Anytime TD (+285): Earns $750k with 1 touchdown

NFL Prop Picks (Odds via DraftKings)

1 Unit – Jaxson Dart Over 213.5 Passing Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Tyrone Tracy Over 14.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

1 Unit – Michael Wilson Over 72.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Michael Wilson Alt Over 6.5 Receptions (+130)

0.75 Unit – Puka Nacua Over 97.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Trey McBride Over 67.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Tanner McKee Over 223.5 Passing Yards (-110)

0.75 Unit – Caleb Williams Over 237.5 Passing Yards (-110)

0.75 Unit – Derrick Henry Over 19.5 Rush Attempts (-110)

0.25 Unit – Lamar Jackson Over 27.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Kenneth Gainwell Over 63.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-110)

NBA (0.75 Unit) Michael Porter Jr Over 26.5 Points (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 2:30 PM CT on YES

Porter has been dealing with a little bit of an illness, but he’s listed as probable and I doubt there’s any way he’s missing this game. It’s his first opportunity to face his former team, and the Nuggets coming in very shorthanded is only going to make things easier for Porter tonight. MPJ had an excellent December, averaging 28.3 PPG and going over this total in 8 of his 10 games last month. Add in the situation and the depleted Nuggets roster, and I think he could go off today.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 31-42 (-3.57 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Extreme Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.