Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 01/03

Locks

NFL (1 Unit) 2-Team 6 Point Teaser (-110; Odds via Caesars)

Carolina Panthers (+9) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 3:30 PM CT on ABC

Anyone expecting the Bucs to win this game, and then get help from Atlanta in order to win the division, needs to understand how broken the team is. When you come down the stretch of the season on a 1-7 straight up and 0-8 ATS run, things have gotten off the rails. I think Baker Mayfield is incredibly banged up, the Tristan Wirfs injury situation is very damaging to their offense, and they might win this game but they’re not doing it by double digits.

The Panthers are the ultimate underdog, with all 8 of their wins this season coming in the underdog role. And having lost last week they have a chance to keep bouncing back extremely well, as they’re 7-0 ATS the week after a straight up loss, covering the number by 11.8 points on average. This division is a dumpster fire, we’re not getting great football here, but asking either of these teams to win by margin is asking too much so I love the teased number today.

Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 40ers (+8.5): 7:00 PM CT on ABC

With another division, and the NFC’s top seed being decided here, I can’t imagine a team running away in this game either. The defense for San Francisco might very well become problematic, as they’ve been a disaster lately and are all the way down to dead last in the league for success rate allowed. But their offense is in elite territory with Brock Purdy back and clicking with all his weapons, plus CMC going off, and that makes them very capable of staying inside a teased plus number.

We also saw Sam Darnold in this very spot last season, playing in Week 18 with a chance to secure the number one seed. He turned into a pumpkin in that game, and his trajectory down the stretch of the season is cause for more concern, so a hostile divisional road game for all the marbles might not be a great spot to back him. I just can’t envision this game getting out of hand in either direction, so with a big number here outside of a full possession, I’ll back the home team to keep it close and very possibly win it outright.

NFL Saturday Prop Picks (Odds via DraftKings)

0.75 Unit – Rachad White Over 22.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Baker Mayfield Over 18.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Bryce Young Over 18.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Mike Evans Over 4.5 Receptions (+105)

0.25 Unit – Rico Dowdle Anytime TD (+115)

0.25 Unit – Mike Evans Anytime TD (+155)

0.5 Unit – Sam Darnold Alt Over 2.5 Passing TD’s (+265)

0.75 Unit – Jaxon Smith-Njigba Over 98.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.75 Unit – George Kittle Over 61.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – AJ Barner Over 37.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Jaxon Smith-Njigba Anytime TD (-105)

0.25 Unit – George Kittle Anytime TD (+160)

0.25 Unit – Jauan Jennings Anytime TD (+185)

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Akron/Miami-OH Over 174.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 2:30 PM CT on ESPN+

Ok, Miami is still undefeated and I’m a little scared because it doesn't make a ton of sense. What does make sense is their style though, and this up-tempo offense that loves to fire from deep has been difficult for opponents to handle. They’ll be seeing a reflection of themselves when they host Akron here, and two teams who love to run and shoot it extremely well from deep should pile up points in bunches.

The Redhawks have gotten to this perfect record in large part by shooting three’s at the 6th-best percentage in the country, but here come the Zips at 7th nationally to turn this into a three-point contest. Both teams are also playing very fast, ranking 30th and 43rd in adjusted tempo, and Akron also struggles to guard the three so I have no doubt points are coming. These teams are a combined 17-3 to the over this season, with Miami a perfect 5-0 over at home, and metrics sites are seeing this as a game in the 180’s so I’ll take the over.

NCAA Basketball (1 Unit) Duke/Florida State Over 163.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 2:45 PM CT on CBS

For three games in a row now, Duke has shown a lot of problems on the defensive end of the floor, and this is not a good matchup for fixing the struggles. Opponents have been shooting it extremely well against them lately, especially last time out when Georgia Tech couldn’t miss from deep. Three-point production allowed has been an issue all season, and now they face a Florida State team with no fear from beyond the arc.

The Seminoles launch the second-most three’s per game in the country, and rely almost exclusively on the long ball for their scoring. I think plenty of those drop today against Duke, and FSU’s pace of the 9th-fastest adjusted tempo will maximize possessions on their home floor. This Blue Devils offense also operates very quickly, and I’m sure they’ll be looking to make a statement on national TV after two questionable outings. So I think pace and three’s from FSU combined with efficiency and motivation from Duke will send this over the total.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 30-30 (+0.73 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Extreme Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.