Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 01/03

Locks

NCAA Football (0.75 Unit) Virginia Tech vs Minnesota -8.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:30 PM CT on ESPN

This number has been rising fast all week, and I would have to agree with the move. The entire market seems to grasp just how much of a personnel hole Virginia Tech is in tonight, and they should be in trouble against a Minnesota team that takes every bowl appearance seriously.

The Hokies have been hit hard by opt-outs, transfers, and injuries, so they’ll really be left with a backup quarterback trying to hand off most of the game. I don’t see that going well against a Gophers defense that ranked 10th in rush success rate this season, is an excellent tackling unit, and now can stack the box since VaTech was never much of a throwing offense to begin with.

PJ Fleck has almost his entire roster at his disposal tonight, particularly in the offensive skill positions, so he should let Max Brosmer sling it for his final college game. This Gophers offense might be clunky at times, but the Hokies missing their best corner, safety, and linebacker will make things easy for Brosmer and company. This game has the look of a blowout, particularly with how the Big10 and ACC have fared in bowl season, so look for Minnesota to win by double digits without much trouble.

NBA (0.75 Unit) San Antonio Spurs/Denver Nuggets First Half Over 116 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 8:00 PM CT on Altitude

This total might look high, but I actually think it’s a bargain. Denver has been insane lately, with their games flying over high totals every night and it usually starts early. That’s because the Nuggets allow the most first half points in the league, plus they score the 4th-most before halftime, a good combination for this bet. Their past 4 games have seen an average of 137.0 points in the first half, which might not be repeatable with the Spurs, but is still 20 points north of what’s needed here.

San Antonio is a low-scoring team in first halves, and actually scores the fewest first half points per game on the road. But I think a lot of that is simply luck of the draw in their schedule, facing a lot of defensive-oriented teams on the road so far. When they face high-scoring and up-tempo teams like Denver is, their first halves can get wild as well. The Spurs are not short on offensive talent, certainly having enough firepower to score on a Nuggets team that has plummeted down the defensive ranks, so look for another fast start in Denver tonight.

Degenerates

NCAA Basketball Nevada Team Total Under 72.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 10:00 PM CT on FS1

I’ll keep hammering home the point that Nevada’s offense appears to be broken now that we’ve entered conference play, scoring 64, 63, and 64 points in their three Mountain West games. This is an interesting one though, as New Mexico playing at home in The Pit can dial up tempo and turn any game into a shootout.

The Lobos play at the 4th-fastest pace in the country, and they also have an awful three-point defense, so Nevada might benefit there if they ever decide to be a volume three-point shooting team. But they haven’t so far, as the Wolfpack prefers to play at the country’s 351st adjusted tempo and feed it down low to Nick Davidson. This is a matchup where continuing with that gameplan is a recipe for more sluggish offense, and until Nevada proves me wrong, I’ll be fading their offense.

Tiny Nick has gained +72.2 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.