Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 01/02

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Jarrett Allen Alt Over 9.5 Rebounds (+115; Odds via DraftKings): 6:30 PM CT on Prime Video

Things are dire now for Denver, who has basically nobody up front and now have to face the imposing frontcourt duo from Cleveland. There’s just no way this goes well for the Nuggets, and I think a primary beneficiary is Allen who can clean the glass all night without much competition. He’s only reached double-digit rebounds 7 times this season, but both of his past two games and all of them have come against frontcourts that can be pushed around. Without much resistance tonight, I’ll take a shot on this alt number with a nice juicy return.

NBA (0.5 Unit) Deni Avdija Over 26.5 Points (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 7:00 PM CT on KUNP

Avdija and the Blazers have played New Orleans twice this season, one was a tight game and the other was a Pelicans blowout. Avdija had very different nights in those games, only managing 16 points in the blowout loss but doubling that to 32 points in the competitive game. The spread tonight of 1.5 points suggests we’re in for a competitive affair here, and that has me expecting bigger things out of Avdija in this game. The Pelicans are a great matchup for him since they’re dead last in two-point defense and he’s not a volume three-point shooter. So with the Blazers shorthanded and needing everything they can get out of Avdija, I think he delivers tonight.

NCAA Basketball (1 Unit) USC @ Michigan -22.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on Peacock

It’s conference play, things are going to get tougher, they’re facing a ranked opponent……just stop. Michigan is the freight train of all freight trains right now, from a metrics standpoint moving into all-time territory on KenPom, and they’re not letting up tonight. What they’ve been doing to teams over the past 6 weeks might be illegal in some southern states, and I don’t see USC being able to slow it down.

The Trojans come in ranked and with a decent metrics profile, which serves to hold this number down a little bit. Good, I love discounts, and Michigan has absolutely demolished far better teams than them on the year. USC wants to live at the free throw line, but the Wolverines simply aren’t going to fall for it, and their interior defense is the best in the country. The USC defense has not seen anything on the level of Michigan’s scoring ability as this offense has averaged triple digits in this 8-game stretch, and should be set for another blowout.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Lamar/McNeese St Under 142.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on CBSSN

Michigan’s previous victim takes the floor again here after they received their beatdown, and this should go a lot better for them. Giving up 112 to the Wolverines will probably inspire the Cowboys to focus on defense ahead of this game, and I think they’ll have success holding Lamar down tonight. It’s actually a game where I see both defenses being able to hold down the opposing offense, since both excel at defending what the other wants to do.

That’s two-point shooting, as neither can shoot the three very well so they rely heavily on scoring inside, but both defenses are elite at limiting two-point production. Both the Cardinals and Cowboys play at below average adjusted tempos, and force very long possessions defensively, so I see this as a grind that stays under the number.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) West Virginia Team Total Under 61.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN2

I want a way to back my Cyclones here, and this seems like the best option instead of laying a large number of points. I just don’t see West Virginia being able to go into one of the tougher environments in college basketball and have offensive success, not with the style they play. The Mountaineers are one of the slowest-paced teams in the country, ranked 353rd in adjusted tempo.

Additionally, they’re just not the same team away from home. They’re a good three-point shooting team overall, but they drop to just 33.3% from deep in road games. And they take care of the ball really well, but average 13.5 turnovers per game on the road and are up against the best defense in the country at forcing turnovers. The Clones have held elite offenses like Purdue and Creighton under this number already this season, and I think they open Big12 play with a lockdown defensive performance.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 27-30 (-0.75 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Extreme Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.