The (Under) Dogs Are Barking: Week 4

Through three weeks, there’s good news and bad news. The good news: if I were a major leaguer, I’d be leading the league in hitting. The bad news: I’m not, and a .333 average in handicapping is not going to cut it. So we’ll take our 3-6 record in stride and hope that this week’s litter of dogs proves to be a little feistier.

Buccaneers +3 ½ vs. Philadelphia

These two undefeated contenders enter this game as the luckiest teams in the league through three weeks, each pulling out wins in the craziest fashion. Both teams are dealing with key injuries, but this is not a good matchup for the Eagles. The Bucs always give Jalen Hurts fits, with their heavy blitz rate, and their bulk up front can even challenge the Tush Push.

Philadelphia’s offense is stuck in neutral so far this season, ranking 29th in passing yardage, and it won’t be easy to move it against Todd Bowles’ defense on a hot, muggy day. Tampa Bay is one of the stingiest against the run, so there won’t be any relief on the ground either. Hurts is 1-2 against the Bucs in the regular season, and I think he drops to 1-3 by Sunday night.

Browns +10 ½ at Detroit

No, I’m not rating the Browns highly because of their stunning win over the Packers. I just think this number is over-inflated, based on Detroit’s impressive win in Baltimore. Cleveland’s defense looks a lot more like Green Bay’s defense that stifled the Lions’ running game in the opener, and I think they’ll be able to have similar success that the Packers had.

Detroit’s pass rush has not been very good, and that’s good news for Joe Flacco, who just has to do enough in this game to keep it somewhat close. Look for them to rely on rookie Quinshon Judkins, who heated up in the fourth quarter last week and gives that offense a chance to sustain some drives. Feels like a 20-13 kind of game to me.

Bengals +7 ½ at Denver

When we last saw the Bengals play, they couldn’t get out of their own way and couldn’t hand the ball over to the Vikings often enough. What gives me hope that they’ll fare any better against another tough, ball-hawking defense? Mostly, I don’t think the Broncos should be favored by more than a touchdown against anyone.

Bo Nix is PFF’s lowest-rated starting quarterback through three weeks, and they haven’t found a lot of consistency on that side of the ball. Look for the Bengals to simplify some things for Jake Browning and get the ball in the hands of their playmakers early.

After a tough divisional loss to the Chargers and with a trip to Philly looming next week, I think Denver plays with its food a bit this week and lets the Bengals hang around.

Last Week: 1-2

Season: 3-6