The (Under) Dogs Are Barking: Week 16

There are dogs, and then there are dogs. My three chosen puppies this week have a combined eight wins. Yep, I’m riding some dismal teams this week, but I love the spot they're in.

Commanders +7 vs. Philadelphia

A lot of folks are back on the Eagles bandwagon after they demolished the Raiders last week. Not me. This is the first of two meetings between these teams over the final three weeks, and there’s not a ton on the line — Philly will win the division in their sleep.

The Commanders have finally shut down Jayden Daniels, and Marcus Mariota takes over the rest of the way. The offense has been more productive under Mariota and comes into this one intact. Meanwhile, the Eagles are still without their best linemen on each side of the ball: RT Lane Johnson and DT Jalen Carter.

While the Eagles have mostly dominated the NFC East lately, they’ve struggled within the division in December, where Jalen Hurts is just 1-5 ATS. This line reflects their blowout last week. It’s a few points too high, from where I sit.

Titans +3 vs. Kansas City

Over the last few years writing this blog, no team has let me down more than the Titans, but I’m jumping back on with them this week because they’ve shown a little grit over the past few weeks, staying within one score of the Seahawks and winning in Cleveland.

Now they face the Chiefs, who are out of the playoffs and will take the field for the first time without Patrick Mahomes. There’s no way this team is excited to play this game. Gardner Minshew will likely be without Rashee Rice, too. Tennessee is not in the tanking business -- they have their young quarterback. They’re still playing hard and will relish their real opportunity to take down the big bad Chiefs.

Raiders +14 ½ at Houston

It’s okay, I understand. You’re out. No way, no how are you backing the Raiders — a team coming off a shutout loss, finishing up a lost season, and currently in an epic battle with the Giants for the No. 1 pick. Meanwhile, the Texans are cooking, riding a six-game winning streak. Work with me here…

Let’s start with a trend: teams that get shut out this season are 6-0 ATS the following week. I’m guessing that once Geno Smith is announced as the starter (he’s been a full participant in practice this week), the line may drop a bit: Kenny Pickett was a disaster last week in Philly.

Bottom line: the line is too high. The Texans will be without their starting running back, and Maxx Crosby will not allow his defense to quit. I think the Raiders hang around in a game where the Texans feel they can just go through the motions.

Last Week: 1-2

Season: 20-24-1