The (Under) Dogs Are Barking: Week 15

We’re coming off a winning week and we roll toward the stretch run with Week 15 looking massive, or should I say mastiff. There are a slew of giant dogs this week, with six lines over a touchdown and four of them higher than 11 points.

The NFL season is such a roller coaster. Imagine if I told you a month ago that the high-flying Colts would be 13 ½ point underdogs in a game in December. Or that Philip Rivers would be starting for them.

I am passing on the mastiffs this week (the Colts were the closest to making the cut) and rolling with three road teams that all have matchups that should translate to close games or even an upset or two.

Lions +6 at L.A. Rams

It’s always fun when these teams meet, since the giant QB swap a few years back has paid dividends for both teams. They appear to be moving in opposite directions, though the Lions stayed on postseason life support with their win over Dallas last week.

They come in on extra rest, but are hurting big time in the secondary, with Brian Branch being the latest casualty. I don’t doubt that Matthew Stafford and the Rams will score fairly easily on the Lions, but I think the Lions can match them.

L.A. has struggled against teams that can bully you with the ground game (their three losses coming to the Eagles, 49ers, and Panthers), and the Lions definitely qualify with their Sonic and Knuckles duo. What swings this for me is that the Lions have beaten the Rams the last two times they met and they are absolute money as underdogs. Not to mention, they’re the more desperate team. At worst, they keep this one close.

Browns +7 ½ at Chicago

I admit, this one scares me a little, because there’s no way Shedeur Sanders has ever played football in the kind of frigid temps he’ll face on Sunday -- it could drop below zero in the Windy City. Then again, Caleb Williams isn’t going to love it either.

This figures to be a game dominated by the run game on both sides, and with a low total, I’m happy to take the extra hook. When is the last time the Bears were favored by more than a touchdown over anybody? And Cleveland’s defense will travel and should flourish in the cold weather. Offensively, if they lean on rookie Quinshon Judkins against that suspect Bears’ run defense, they should stay in this one.

Finally, though Chicago will be motivated to put the loss to the Packers behind them, it could be a classic spot where they look past a losing team, with a rematch with their bitter rivals looming on a short week.

Vikings +6 at Dallas

No, I haven’t been guzzling the grape Kool Aid; I don’t believe J.J. McCarthy has figured everything out. But he has a chance to string a couple of strong performances together as he faces another below-average defense. Aside from his start in Green Bay, he has played well and earned wins in his other big road tests in Chicago and Detroit.

The attraction for me here is Brian Flores against Dak Prescott and the Cowboys’ offense. The Vikings defense is healthy and humming and will be able to disrupt the timing in Dallas’ passing attack. Their two elite receivers will likely make a few big plays, but I see the offense struggling to sustain a lot over the course of the game against Flores’ relentless blitzing.

This line feels a couple of points too high to me. I wouldn’t be stunned to see Minnesota pull off the upset in a high-scoring game, but at most, it feels like a 3-4-point win for Jerry’s boys.

Last Week: 2-1

Season: 19-22-1