The (Under) Dogs Are Barking: Week 14

The calendar has turned to December; we have entered the NFL’s stretch run, and this weekend’s slate is not short on games with huge divisional and playoff implications. Only one of my picks this week features two teams still in the hunt. I found some nice value in a couple of teams whose seasons have gone south, but are still playing hard and have favorable matchups.

Saints +8 ½ at Tampa Bay

It would be easy to ride the Bucs this week since they snapped a three-game slide last week and blew out the Saints 23-3 in the first matchup in New Orleans. But look deeper, and you’ll see the Saints outgained Tampa Bay in the first matchup (just as the Cards did to them last week), but three turnovers sealed their fate.

Both teams have been struggling to score lately, so this figures to be a low-scoring game. Baker Mayfield is playing hurt, and his receivers can’t stay on the field, and the Saints’ defense is good enough to keep Bucky Irving from wrecking the game.

This is just too many points in a divisional rematch. I'm just betting Tyler Shough can cobble together 10-13 points. That should put us in the money.

Falcons +7 vs. Seattle

This is my favorite play of the week. The world will be backing Seattle, coming off their shutout win, and with the door to the top spot in the NFC West wide open after the Rams’ loss in Carolina. Not to mention, the Seahawks have been a covering machine on the road this season.

The magic ends at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, where a disappointing Falcons team awaits, and one that matches up well, especially their defense. Their 41 sacks rank third in the league. Sam Darnold has looked skittish the last two weeks, and I say he turns the ball over a couple of times on Sunday. Atlanta has lost a lot of close games, and this could be another one. But they’ll keep it within one score -- I’m not ruling out the upset here.

Texans +3 ½ at Kansas City

Full transparency: I went back and forth on two games here, debating the Texans and the Raiders. Ultimately, I just couldn’t back Las Vegas, even though I don’t trust Denver to beat anybody too badly on the road.

I’m riding the Texans instead, knowing full well this will basically be a primetime home playoff game for the Chiefs. Some would say you have to be nuts betting against Mahomes in this spot. I say this is not the same Chiefs team. His offensive line is a shell of its former self and will have no chance against Houston’s all-world edge rushers.

Sure, Mahomes will make some magic happen, like he always does, and his team’s 1-6 record in one-score games will turn in his favor eventually, maybe even Sunday night. But that extra half point swings this one toward the Texans. Their four-game winning streak (including the Jags, Bills, and Colts) has them knocking on the door in the AFC South, and that defense travels. In a low-scoring affair, the Chiefs will be fortunate to escape with a three-point win.

Last Week: 1-2

Season: 17-21-1