The (Under) Dogs Are Barking: Week 1

Excited to be back for a fourth season, where I find three feisty underdogs each week to get behind. If you’re new here, I only consider dogs of three points or more, and you’re going to have to get accustomed to seeing me backing some pretty ugly teams. Week 1 can be kind of wonky, and there are a lot smaller spreads this week, but there are also usually some over-inflated lines, and I’ve zeroed in on three of them.

Browns +5 ½ vs. Cincinnati

Divisional underdogs are always a good bet in Week 1, and when they’re at home, it’s even more profitable. The Dawg Pound is always happy to welcome Joe Burrow and Co. Myles Garrett and that tough front seven always make things interesting -- Burrow is just 3-5 against the Browns, and his team seems to get off to slow starts year after year.

Of course, you can’t shut down that high-powered offense, but playing on a slow, natural grass surface, combined with a good pass rush, makes it hard to see them approaching 30 points. And on the other side, this Browns team has an actual accomplished, if a little grizzled, QB in Joe Flacco, who should function in rhythm against that miserable Cincinnati defense. Look for him to find Jerry Jeudy and David Njoku enough to keep up on the scoreboard. The Browns will keep it close.

N.Y. Giants +6 at Washington

Sticking with another divisional matchup here that figures to be closer than many might think. I’m in the camp that thinks the Commanders take a step back in 2025 and miss the playoffs. It will be virtually impossible to replicate last year’s crazy finishes and amazing success on third and fourth downs. They are the oldest roster in the NFL, despite having one of the shiniest stars at QB.

The addition of Abdul Carter gives the Giants one of the best front fours in the league, and they should have the edge up front. How well they do containing Jayden Daniels as a runner will be huge. Russell Wilson may be keeping the seat warm for rookie Jaxson Dart, but he’s in line for a solid day against a mediocre defense.

Faced with lofty expectations for the first time in a long time, Washington will find everything a little more difficult this year. They’ll likely win this one, but it won’t be easy.

Titans +8 ½ at Denver

Okay, this may be my toughest sell of the week. Why do I believe in a team that barely covered a game last season, debuting a rookie quarterback on the road against what might be the best defense in the league? I think the Broncos will take a little while to get up and running.

They had an uneven training camp and preseason with the first team offense and have gotten off to slow starts in Week 1. Sean Payton has yet to win a season opener in Denver. The Titans’ defense has some solid talent up front, and CB L'Jarius Sneed is expected to play after a lost season, perhaps neutralizing WR Courtland Sutton. Rookie Cam Ward is the wild card here, and with no tape to watch, the Titans may have some tricks up their sleeve. They seem poised to be a live back door cover on Sunday afternoon.