The Packers Will Lean Heavily On Base Defense In Chicago

The Green Bay Packers and the Chicago Bears will meet for the second time in less than 15 days this Saturday, this time in Chicago. Make no mistake, though: The Bears will not be seeing the same Packers defense they faced in Week 14, schematically or from a personnel standpoint.

Micah Parsons’ season-ending knee injury alters the foundation of Green Bay’s defensive plan, directly impacting how the Packers generate consistent pressure and limiting how heavily Jeff Hafley can lean on the 4-2-5 that has defined his system since 2024. The ripple effect is a greater dependence on traditional 4-3 structures, and Green Bay will need to trust its base sets on Saturday.

Chicago will be shorthanded on the perimeter after ruling out wide receivers Rome Odunze and Luther Burden for the game. The rushing attack has been the driving force of Chicago’s offense, and Ben Johnson will likely lean into it to keep Caleb Williams in manageable situations. The numbers reinforce that plan; Williams ranks 58th among qualified quarterbacks in completion percentage and will be playing without two of his top three wideouts.

Expect Chicago to lean heavily on 12- and 13-personnel. The Bears rank 11th in total EPA generated out of 12-personnel and seventh in rushing EPA from those same looks. Moving to 13-personnel also allows Chicago to add more size to a rushing attack that found success against Green Bay in the last meeting, even if much of that advantage came from Jordan Love and the offense struggling to stay on the field.

Naturally, Green Bay will counter by getting more size on the field to match Chicago’s personnel and increase its odds against the run. That’s where Isaiah McDuffie factors in at the second level alongside Edgerrin Cooper and Quay Walker in base looks. However, matching personnel is only one layer of the decision, and it is not the only reason base defense is the more sensible approach for the Packers this Saturday.

Green Bay’s secondary has been the weak link of the defense, which should not come as a surprise to anyone watching the tape. Evan Williams’ status amplifies that concern. He didn’t practice this week while recovering from an MCL injury sustained last Sunday against the Denver Broncos. Although the Packers list him as questionable on the injury report, Williams has said he does not feel comfortable playing without practice time, making it likely he will miss the game.

Williams has been one of Green Bay’s most effective defenders against the run and, without question, the best run defender in their secondary. His absence would force the Packers to find alternative ways to account for Chicago’s potential run-heavy approach, which is why adding an extra linebacker to the box carries real value in this matchup.

Williams has been the secondary’s second-most dependable defender, behind only first-team All-Pro Xavier McKinney. In a unit that has already shown its limitations and may now be without its most instinctive safety, the calculation becomes straightforward. Green Bay is better served lining up in base, emphasizing run defense, and forcing Chicago into obvious long-yardage passing situations, a structure that naturally reduces the stress on players like Keisean Nixon and Carrington Valentine.

Green Bay will be taking a calculated risk by leaning heavily on base personnel. Quay Walker ranks 114th among qualified linebackers in coverage grade and 16th in passer rating allowed among linebackers with at least 50 coverage snaps in 2025. Meanwhile, Isaiah McDuffie is allowing the lowest passer rating of his career in coverage this season at 87.3, but the larger sample tempers that optimism. His career average passer rating allowed sits at 113.8, and last year he surrendered a 130.3 coverage rating, the ninth-highest among 97 linebackers with at least 100 coverage snaps.

It is a risk Green Bay is prepared to take in Chicago. It may pay off, it may not, but it could represent the clearest path for the Packers to leave Chicago with the division lead and one step closer to a playoff spot.