The Packers Need More Three-Safety Packages In the 4-2-5 Personnel

Last year, the Green Bay Packers' safety unit was arguably the worst in the league. In 2024, it has become Green Bay's best defensive unit by a considerable margin.

Xavier McKinney has five interceptions and a fumble recovery in five games. He's on pace for All-Pro honors and holds PFF’s best coverage grade this season. In 207 coverage snaps, he's only allowed two receptions for 23 yards on seven targets, with quarterbacks posting a 1.2 passer rating when throwing his way. In Week 5, he was named NFC Defensive Player of the Week for his performance against the Los Angeles Rams.

Evan Williams and Javon Bullard are off to strong starts in their NFL careers. Williams holds the second-highest defensive grade among 2024 rookie safeties and the highest for those with at least 35 snaps. Quarterbacks only have a passer rating of 29.7 when targeting him, a rating lower than if they spiked the ball on every play, which would be 39.6.

Bullard leads his rookie class in run-defense grade, pass-rush grade, and stops, which is a tackle that results in a failure for the offense. He also ranks in the top 10 for run defense among 41 qualified safeties with at least 100 run-defense snaps.

Green Bay has used Bullard all over the field. He is the first rookie in five years to play 60-plus snaps in the box, the nickel, and as a deep safety in his first five career games. However, his best plays have come near the line of scrimmage.

The Packers have played a lot of base defense this season, and opponents have consistently punished them between the numbers. Quay Walker and Isaiah McDuffie have PFF coverage grades of 45.8 and 56.8, respectively. Matthew Stafford completed 12 of 16 passes for 96 yards and an 89.6 rating on throws traveling 0-10 yards. The week before, Sam Darnold completed all three of his passes in that range with a 118.8 rating.

Quay Walker and Isaiah McDuffie have primarily served as the starting linebackers in Green Bay's 4-2-5 defense, but both have struggled significantly in pass coverage. Walker has a PFF coverage grade of 45.8, the worst of his career.

Meanwhile, Isaiah McDuffie ranks as the 27th-best linebacker in coverage among those with at least 120 coverage snaps. In contrast, Edgerrin Cooper holds the fourth-best coverage grade among rookie linebackers. The Packers could pair Cooper with Williams or Bullard in the second level. It might be smarter to place Bullard as a linebacker in that personnel, given his strength against the run, while Williams plays deep safety.

While the Packers will primarily be in the 4-2-5 on passing situations, adding Bullard or Williams at the second level could enhance their run defense. Four of the team's five best run defenders are in the secondary, including Bullard, who has the highest run-defense grade on the roster. Both rookies have a higher run-defense grade than Walker and McDuffie.

Green Bay could drop all their safeties into coverage at the third level, likely reducing Keisean Nixon’s role. However, the second level is in greater need of a safety than the third level is of all three. Nixon has been less of a liability in coverage than the linebackers. He leads all of Green Bay’s defensive backs in stops and is tied with Williams for the most pass breakups.

Designing either Bullard or Williams as a linebacker in the 4-2-5 would likely improve Green Bay's run defense while enhancing second-level coverage. Hafley could implement this for long passing downs, but using a defensive back on short to medium first and second downs risks offenses running the ball more effectively. In third-and-medium or -long situations, placing a safety at the second level is Green Bay's best option for getting off the field.

Green Bay’s safeties offer enough versatility to contribute in all phases of the defense. With the unit performing at an elite level, the Packers need to prioritize getting their best players on the field, and right now, that means leaning on a group that's playing lights out.