The Packers Must Heed Fred Warner’s Warning About Cleveland

According to ESPN, the Green Bay Packers enter Sunday as 7.5-point favorites over the 0-2 Cleveland Browns. The betting odds also give Green Bay an implied 8.3-point margin of victory and a 70.2% probability to win outright.

The Packers have to win this game. They’re coming off back-to-back victories over the Detroit Lions and Washington Commanders — two of the NFC’s top four teams from last season — and won both by double digits. In those games, Green Bay tallied at least four sacks while holding each opponent to fewer than 60 rushing yards and 200 net passing yards, becoming the first team in the Super Bowl era to hit all those marks in the first two weeks of a season.

The Packers should be feeling pretty good about where they stand. According to FanDuel, they have the third-highest odds to win the Super Bowl, trailing only the Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens. They’re arguably the best team in the NFL right now and should be favored in each of their next three games.

With that said, they can’t let their confidence turn into complacency. Heading to Cleveland, they’re facing a classic trap game against a winless squad, and they can’t afford to get carried away with their own hype.

Hitting the road is always tough in the NFL. According to a survey of 111 players, Huntington Bank Field ranked tied for 11th as the most difficult stadium to play in, alongside M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore. It fell into the “Altitude, Noise, and ‘Renegade’” tier.

Let’s go back to 2023. The eventual NFC Champion San Francisco 49ers entered Week 6 on a five-game winning streak, scoring at least 30 points in each of their first six contests. Then they faced the Browns on the road and fell 19-17. At the time, Cleveland had the league’s top defense in EPA per play, total EPA, success rate, and lowest completion percentage allowed.

After the game, Fred Warner admitted that the loss had shaken the Niners a little.

"Another thing people don't realize is we're not used to losing, which is a great thing," Warner told his wife on “The Warner House.”

"It should sting because we're not used to losing. If we were used to losing, we would go in there like, 'Oh, well. Let's hope we get them next time.' No, the standard has been winning every single week. So to start the season 5-0 and then you lose a game, it's like, 'Oh my god, I forgot what that feeling was like.' We hadn't lost a game since the NFC Championship Game last year. So it's good for us.”

While that was two years ago, Cleveland’s defense remains a force today. They’re sixth in pass-rush win rate and third in run-stop win rate, and they’ve allowed the fewest yards per game through the first two weeks.

The Packers might not have had the same recent postseason success as San Francisco, but they’re in a similar spot as the 49ers were two years ago — heading to Cleveland as the clear favorite. Every analyst in the country will pick them to win, and while that’s just part of the media narrative, it highlights the kind of expectations they’ll face on the road.

A key difference between the Browns team Green Bay will face and the one the Niners played is the starting quarterback. San Francisco faced a mobile passer in P.J. Walker, while the Packers will face Joe Flacco on Sunday.

Flacco’s pocket-oriented style can play into Jeff Hafley’s defensive scheme. Still, he’s been in the league since 2008. That experience makes it a test of just how creative Hafley can get with disguises and looks that Flacco hasn’t seen before.

When you play the Browns, the challenge is twofold. Their defense makes it tough to sustain drives, forcing offenses into mistakes or quick punts. Meanwhile, their offense tends to struggle, keeping their defense on the field for extended periods and gradually taking a toll. Even so, Cleveland’s defensive unit is strong and well-coached, making this game far from a sure win.

I like Green Bay’s chances and think they’ll come out on top, but I’m not expecting an easy game. Many fans and analysts will underestimate Cleveland, but in the NFL, it’s always any given Sunday.