The Packers Have No Excuses Against Cincinnati

The Green Bay Packers are 2-1-1 — which still feels weird to say — coming off their bye week. On Sunday, they’ll host a Joe Burrow-less Cincinnati Bengals team at 3:25 p.m. CT. It’s any given Sunday in the NFL, but this is a game they have to win.

The Packers should have an advantage in every facet of the game. Fans haven’t exactly been thrilled with Matt LaFleur over the past two weeks, but he’s still a much better head coach and offensive mind than Zac Taylor. Just look at the Bengals without Joe Burrow — three consecutive losses, all by at least two scores, with no sign of life on any phase at the line of scrimmage.

Meanwhile, LaFleur adapted his offense for Malik Willis less than a year ago, going 2-0 in the process. The best head coaches show up in those moments. Just look at Kevin O’Connell defeating a formidable Cleveland Browns defense with Carson Wentz, for example.

According to SumerSports, Green Bay has a top-10 offense in EPA per play, total EPA, success rate, EPA per pass, completion percentage, and passing touchdowns. Meanwhile, Cincinnati’s defense ranks in the bottom six in EPA per play, total EPA, and success rate. They’ve also allowed the third-most passing yards, the seventh-most rushing yards, and rank 20th in sack rate.

Cincinnati’s offense has been as dysfunctional as it gets. Before Monday Night Football, they ranked last in EPA per play and EPA per pass. Moreover, they are 31st in total EPA, 30th in success rate, 25th in EPA per rush, 27th in passing yards, 32nd in rushing yards, and 25th in sack rate.

Green Bay’s defense inflated some of its numbers by the performance against the Dallas Cowboys. Still, make no mistake, they’re a highly efficient unit. They remain a top-10 group in success rate and total yards allowed, while giving up the fewest rushing yards.

Remarkably, the Packers became the first team in the Super Bowl era to start a season with back-to-back games allowing four-plus sacks, 60 or fewer rushing yards, and 200 or fewer net passing yards — and they did it against two of last year’s top-four offenses in EPA per play.

Green Bay opened as 14.5-point favorites over the Bengals. They were also heavily favored against the Browns and Cowboys, but the Week 6 clash with Cincinnati is a different kind of challenge than those matchups. Unlike Green Bay’s previous two opponents, the Bengals don’t have an explosive offense or a dominant defense. The game will also be played at Lambeau, where the Packers are 2-0 this season.

Another factor working in Green Bay’s favor is that they’ve had two weeks to rest and get healthy for this game. Hopefully, they can get Zach Tom and Aaron Banks back from injury for a battle against former Defensive Player of the Year finalist Trey Hendrickson. On top of that, Matt LaFleur has a 33-14 record after the bye. His .702 winning percentage following the bye is the fifth-best among active NFL coaches.

The vibes were high among Packers fans after Green Bay started 2-0 against two of the top four teams in the NFC in 2024. However, things got weird after they went 0-1-1 against the Browns and Cowboys. Still, they have an opportunity next Sunday to put together a dominant win, the way a Super Bowl contender should, and build momentum heading into the rest of the month.