The Packers Have A Unique Opportunity to Break A First-Round Trend

The Green Bay Packers’ defensive performance last season has positioned them to break a long-standing first-round trend at the edge rusher position.

The Packers struggled to stop the run throughout the 2010s and early 2020s, whether against mobile quarterbacks or traditional running backs. However, their run defense took a significant step forward under Jeff Hafley. Green Bay finished as a top-10 unit in EPA per rush and allowed just four yards per carry – tied with the Minnesota Vikings for the third-lowest mark in the league.

On the other hand, Green Bay’s pass rush was arguably the most disappointing unit on the team. The Packers finished 26th in pass-rush win rate, and Rashan Gary, who led the team with 47 pressures, ranked just 31st among all edge defenders. Kenny Clark signed a three-year, $64 million extension in the offseason but recorded only one sack.

The Packers didn’t upgrade their pass rush in free agency and will likely look to address it through the draft. However, unlike in previous years, they now have the flexibility to target a player whose primary strength is rushing the passer without needing him to be an every-down contributor immediately. And there's a perfect prospect who fits that mold – though he doesn't meet the typical weight threshold Green Bay prefers for its edge defenders: Mike Green.

Green held his pro day on Tuesday and posted a 6.85 time in the three-cone drill. That mark ranks in the 99th percentile among edge defenders, well above the NFL average of 7.23 seconds for the position. Since 1999, only eight edge defenders have recorded a faster pre-draft time. His mark would have ranked first among all defensive ends and linebackers invited to this year’s NFL Combine.

He’s coming off a dominant season at Marshall, where he recorded 17 sacks, 56 pressures, 81 tackles, and three forced fumbles. His strong pro-day performance has only solidified his status as a first-round pick. How high he’ll be selected is anyone’s guess, but if he’s available at pick No. 23, there’s a clear case for Green Bay to consider him.

The Packers have selected four defensive ends in the first round since 2012, and all weighed at least 265 lbs. Green is listed at 248 lbs, so history suggests he may lack the size Green Bay typically prefers in an edge defender.

"You love those guys that can scream off the edge and come in on third down, and that's all they play, and they play 20 snaps a game tops, but they're very effective," Gutekunst said. "Then when you do have injuries, and you need him to play 50 snaps, can he?

"So there's room for those kind of guys. I just think you've got to be creative, from a roster management piece, how you use those guys."

The key difference between this Packers defense and those of the past is their ability to stop the run. With that solid foundation, Green wouldn't be required to play 50 snaps a game immediately. The Packers don’t need additional bodies to stop the run – they need pass rushers, and Green could provide an immediate spark off the edge. Even if Green Bay takes him in the first round, they should still have opportunities to target bigger, more traditional edge defenders on Days 2 and 3

The downside of potentially drafting Green in the first round is that the Packers would allocate a significant investment to a player who would come in as a situational rusher. One question that would need to be addressed is whether Green Bay would feel confident that, even with a limited snap share, he could immediately upgrade their pass rush.

If the plan is for him to sit and develop, then using a first-round pick on him wouldn’t make much sense. If the Packers were to take a chance at Green, he would need to contribute from Day 1 to justify the selection.

The 2025 draft is the first in a while where the Packers can afford to break their first-round trend of selecting heavy edge rushers. However, if they opt for a more speed-oriented rusher like Green, they will need to add more traditional, bigger-bodied edge defenders later in the draft.

Green Bay’s current edge rushers couldn’t get the job done in 2024. While adding Green could provide a different dynamic off the edge, they’ll also need depth with players who fit their typical prototype in case injuries pile up.

Green is a talented player and could compete for an immediate starting role alongside Rashan Gary. However, his most likely role would be as a situational rusher. Green Bay probably wouldn’t have their sights set on him in any other year. Still, given that the Packers have already proven they can stop the run, they now have the luxury of bringing in a player whose primary duty would be to rush the quarterback.