The Green Bay Packers' game against the Denver Broncos on Sunday will be one of the more grueling matchups either side has had all season. Both teams sit near the top of their conference, coming off seven-point victories against divisional opponents last week. It will be an unstoppable force vs. an immovable object-type matchup. Green Bay and Denver’s offenses are awesome, but so are both defenses.
However, both offenses have some scheme advantages over the opposing defenses. While I think this will be a low-possession slog of a game, I could also easily see it turning into a shootout rather than a slugfest. The game could be determined by which offense best takes advantage of the favorable matchups.
The Packers have a favorable matchup against Denver’s defense because the Broncos play a lot of man coverage. Green Bay scored 27 and 31 points in both games against the Detroit Lions. Against the New York Giants, Jordan Love had the best PFF grade of his career, and in the Pittsburgh Steelers game, he completed 20 consecutive passes at one point.
The throughline with those three teams? They are three of the four Packers opponents who have played more man defense than the Broncos. Throughout this season, Green Bay’s offense has played some of its best games against man defenses.
On top of that, the Packers have gotten back some weaponry that has helped them continue to excel against man. Christian Watson has killed man defense since returning from injury, using his ability to run past people. Jayden Reed also just returned from injury, and he’s another player who can help beat man.
Still, Denver’s defense is much better than any of the other man defenses Green Bay has played. They’re top-five in most defensive metrics, have a ferocious pass rush, and playmakers at all levels.
Denver has the most sacks in the league with 55. They are on pace to tie the all-time sack record, and just got back Patrick Surtain, the reigning defensive player of the year.
The Cleveland Browns are the fourth team not mentioned above that the Packers have played that plays more man defense than the Broncos. The Browns are the one defense the Packers have played that is most comparable to Denver. They play a lot of man and have a great pass rush (second in sacks with 44). In that game, the offensive line collapsed, and Green Bay's offense struggled throughout, managing just 10 points and losing on a game-winning field goal.
That game against the Browns was the start of a stretch for Green Bay where the offense really lost its way. The offensive line was beat up and playing poorly. The run game wasn’t working, yet Matt LaFleur insisted on getting it going to open up the pass game. On top of that, Tucker Kraft got injured, Watson wasn’t fully back yet, and Reed was still on the shelf.
This time around, the offense is in much different shape. Over the last several weeks, it has found its way. The offensive line is playing much better after they added Sean Rhyan and Anthony Belton to the starting group. Watson has played the best football of his career. Green Bay should continue to see increased snaps from Reed, Dontayvion Wicks, and Matthew Golden, who are all recovering from injury, and the quarterback, Jordan Love, is playing at an MVP level.
The Broncos will be a great test for Green Bay’s offense, and being able to protect Love will be the biggest key. This game will indicate whether they are truly ascending and among the league's elite, or if they are a step below and will continue to struggle against the league's best defenses.
Then there’s the other side of the ball for both teams. While the Packers’ offense against Denver’s defense is a matchup of great versus great, Green Bay’s defense against the Broncos’ offense is more like good versus good. Just like the other side of the ball, the offense has the schematic advantage in this one.
I have gripes with Bo Nix and this Broncos offense. It’s not my favorite operation to watch, much like Sean Payton’s New Orleans Saints offense at the end of Drew Brees’ tenure. However, the Broncos lead the league in sacks and have the fourth-best sack differential of all time, indicating they also don't allow sacks. This offensive line is elite, and Payton has set up the passing game to leverage all of Nix’s strengths and create an extremely efficient offense despite the limitations.
Teams with Denver’s offensive structure have also found success against Green Bay’s defense because of what they are willing to give up.
Green Bay’s defense plays a lot of Cover 3 shell. They don't allow explosives and give opponents underneath passes that make teams go 12, 13, or 14 plays without making a mistake. That’s no issue for the Broncos, though. With their elite offensive line, they sit back, (try to) run the ball down their opponents’ throats, stay ahead of the sticks, and dink-and-dunk on you all the way down the field, creating low-possession games that eat up the clock. Then they let their exemplary defense do the work on the other side of the ball.
They rarely blow anyone out, but it’s a recipe that has gotten them to 11-2 and one that has worked against the Packers in the past. The Browns and Cincinnati Bengals used a similar strategy with Joe Flacco. So did the Arizona Cardinals and Jacoby Brissett in Week 7, and the Carolina Panthers and Bryce Young in Week 9, although they leaned on Rico Dowdle in that one.
On top of that, Nix also adds in the rushing threat that none of those statuesque pocket QBs possess.
However, Green Bay’s defense has some stuff going for it. Nix is markedly worse against zone than man (.19 EPA/Play vs Man .08 vs Zone). He also struggles against disguised coverages, and Denver’s run game has mostly struggled after the J.K. Dobbins injury.
The difference in this matchup will be whether or not Green Bay can force Nix into mistakes against the disguised zone coverages or if he just takes what they give him and can dink-and-dunk his way down the field.
Sunday’s game will be a fun test for both sides. We know both of the teams are great, but how great is the question? Mile High is an extremely tough place to play, especially in December, even though it is supposed to be nearly 60 and sunny on Sunday. Green Bay will have to continue playing its best ball to go home with a win.
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