NFC North Odds Market Is Surprisingly Skeptical About Jordan Love

The offseason hype trains are in full swing ahead of the 2024 season, particularly in the NFC North. The Detroit Lions are gearing up for another run after re-entering the picture for the first time in decades. The Minnesota Vikings have a shiny new rookie quarterback and an electric arsenal of pass-catchers. The Green Bay Packers are coming off a strong playoff run with their young core. And the Chicago Bears wiped the slate clean again, albeit with more firepower coming in this time.

The NFL offseason is full of Instagram workout reels, young players and teams forecasted to make a major leap, and news nuggets about certain guys being “lined up all over the field” and “in the best shape of their life.” It’s important to sift through all of the uninformed chatter as bored football fans count down the months to kickoff. Odds markets can help us do that.

Markets don’t just represent where common Twitter folks are putting their money. Instead, they’re optimized to account for every piece of public information, which is mainly accomplished through sharp action in the context of betting. The NFC North is a predictably crowded field with no monstrous favorite. However, the Lions stand out as having the most legitimacy in the eyes of the market.

In 2023, Jared Goff and Dan Campbell led them to the NFC Championship game on the back of an explosive offense that finished top-five in passing yards, passing touchdowns, rushing yards, and rushing touchdowns. Behind a strong offensive line and with stars in the backfield in Jahmyr Gibbs and the slot with Amon-Ra St. Brown, Goff was the only major question mark, given his history as a mediocre quarterback. Brad Holmes answered that with a mammoth extension that upended the market just in time for Jordan Love’s negotiation with the rival Packers. After the loss to end last season in Santa Clara, Campbell lamented that it “may have been our only shot.” Betting markets disagree: Detroit is just +150 to repeat as NFC North champions.

The Packers went on a playoff run where they dominated in Dallas, pushed the San Francisco 49ers to the brink, and introduced their third consecutive franchise signal-caller to the world. Still, Green Bay is nearly in lockstep with Ryan Poles’ new-look Bears from a pricing standpoint. The Packers are +210, with their rivals on their heels at +260. Chicago fans have become known in NFL circles as the boys who cried wolf after regularly overhyping the impact of their offseason additions and making preposterous claims and comparisons involving their young QBs Mitchell Trubisky and Justin Fields. Contrary to those claims, the rivalry has maintained a state of inertia with the Packers on top, winning 23 of 26 games against the Bears over the past 13 seasons – not to mention what has become of Trubisky and Fields.

However, Caleb Williams earned enough respect in his college career at Oklahoma and USC that the market is indeed plopping him essentially right where Love is after four years of development in Green Bay. Coming out of Utah State, Love was advertised as a raw talent and was the fourth quarterback selected from his draft class. He appears to have landed in the perfect situation, having needed all that progressive development to win over most doubters at the tail end of his first campaign under center. By contrast, Williams was the presumptive No. 1-overall pick long before Poles sent in the card. He has played mobile, improvised, and fast-paced offense under Lincoln Riley, and his footwork and body control were looking real Mahomey on tape, as Cris Collinsworth would say.

Football is a team sport, so the odds will be representative of entire lineups in all three phases: depth, coaching, and nearly everything else you can think of. However, football is also unique in its structure of play, wherein a single position is more important than many others combined. It’s a reality that becomes pronounced in the playoffs, high-leverage situations, and almost everything that contributes to winning.

The NFC North is full of divisive quarterbacks. Goff has floated in mediocrity when it comes to talent but has an impressive resumé when it comes to team success; Williams and J.J. McCarthy are the subject of wide-ranging opinions on how they might adjust to the next level, with solid rosters at their disposal if they can. Love has been Schrödinger’s quarterback for years, with hardly any data to justify bold claims about his future. His doubters held on for years until Love slowly silenced them as the holiday season rolled on. Despite many raising their expectations to be in line with those of C.J. Stroud and Jalen Hurts, the market appears to be saying that the jury is still out. That is, if they say he’ll be in a dogfight with a rookie and fall behind Goff.

I interpret it this way because the reality is that Brian Gutekunst has surrounded Love with talent, young and old. He went out and added some critical missing pieces to the defense in safeties Xavier McKinney and Javon Bullard, swapped coordinators, and will return Eric Stokes from injury purgatory. Expectations for Green Bay’s defense should be as high as ever, which has been a fallacious assumption in the past, but it feels like it would take a lot to take this unit off the rails this time. On offense, Love has an elite play-caller whose system he elegantly fits into. The offensive line isn’t deep but full of talent, proven and otherwise. The addition of Josh Jacobs resets Aaron Jones’ age clock by four years, making the corps of young pass-catchers the only real question mark.

After playing great football through 2023, expectations are high for Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, Dontayvion Wicks, and Luke Musgrave in their second or third seasons. Overall, if Jordan Love is the player that he has proven himself to be, the Packers should be in the driver’s seat of the NFC North. Pessimism about their playoff outlook in a weak conference is pessimism about the verdict Love has earned in the eyes of many. If you’re sure he’s the guy, +210 feels pretty cheap.