It's no secret that Jared Goff flourished in Ben Johnson's system in Detroit. Goff was consistently on time with his reads, confident and able to deliver. Much of that had to do with the offensive line in front of him. But a deeper dive into the numbers reveals a very interesting story about what happens to Goff when he’s facing pressure.
Which means Micah Parsons alone can change this matchup for the Green Bay Packers against the Detroit Lions.
Goff wasn't great when facing pressure in 2024. That doesn’t set him apart from most quarterbacks. However, the difference between Goff and the average quarterback is the steepness of his decline.
Per ESPN, Goff is second in the NFL in QBR when sitting in a clean pocket. That number dips to 23rd when facing pressure. That massive difference was the second-largest in the NFL, ahead of only Daniel Jones.
Naturally, when you see this, you might hope that Jeff Hafley dials up one blitz after another on Sunday against Goff and a Detroit offensive line that is replacing two key cogs. But it’s not that easy. And this is where the numbers get fascinating.
According to Pro Football Focus, Goff had a 70.5% completion percentage when facing the blitz in 2024. To put that in perspective, that mark was third-best in the NFL. His PFF grade of 84.9 when being blitzed was fifth-best in the NFL.
Some will say a lot of this had to do with Johnson's system, which is true, but Goff also plays a key role in it. With Johnson gone, we'll see how Goff looks against the blitz in 2025.
That's the dilemma for Hafley. All the data indicate that Goff experiences a steep drop-off in his numbers when teams pressure him, but also suggest that attempting to manufacture that pressure by blitzing can bring out the best in Goff.
Enter Parsons.
Landing Parsons in Green Bay awards Hafley many avenues to explore, and one of them is his ability to single-handedly change things up front without dialing up a blitz.
The Packers were underwhelming when it came to pressuring the quarterback in 2024. They bulked up their overall numbers with two stellar outings against the Tennessee Titans and New Orleans Saints, but they were largely disappointing otherwise.
Can one player really change that dynamic in a major way?
Parsons has 335 quarterback pressures in his career. Since he entered the league in 2021, he has been first in the NFL. Parsons also has a pressure rate of 21.1%. You guessed it, that's also tops in the NFL since Parsons entered the league.
If Detroit wants to send double teams, by all means, do. It will only free up more advantageous looks for Rashan Gary, Devonte Wyatt, Lukas Van Ness, and others.
One player can make that big a difference.
Hafley has a new ace up his sleeve in Parsons. Considering how severely Goff's numbers drop when facing pressure, making his day miserable is a must for the Packers. Green Bay sacked Goff twice last year against the Lions, and the defensive front manufactured just six quarterback hits in the two games combined. That's not going to get it done.
Parsons' agent, David Mulugheta, put it best on ESPN's First Take on Tuesday when discussing the focus for Parsons and why it didn't work out in Dallas.
That sums it up: Parsons’ job is chasing quarterbacks. And he's pretty damn good at it. The way to crack the code with Goff is right there in the data. Executing a plan to make it happen is the challenge.
Pressure is essential, but blitzing against Goff is a gamble. With Hafley in 2024, the Packers blitzed 17.3% of the time. That was 31st in the NFL. Only the Jacksonville Jaguars blitzed less. It was difficult for Goff to get to with the inconsistencies the Packers had in developing pressure.
Everything changes with Parsons in Green Bay. Instead of Green Bay having to be the reactionary team with its back against the wall, going against Detroit's offense, the Lions will now be searching for answers about how to slow down Parsons and the Green Bay front.
One player can change the dynamic of a specific matchup. In the case of the Packers against the Lions with Goff at quarterback, Parsons significantly changes what Green Bay can accomplish up front.
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