Making the Case For A Packers Win

I’m just gonna lay it out there: For as long as I write about the Green Bay Packers, I will never predict a loss to the Chicago Bears. Go ahead, call my credibility into question. Knock yourself out. Don’t care.

By every metric, though, the odds are stacked against the Pack on Saturday night, the 18th prime time meeting between these teams over the past 20 years, and something that you have to believe will be an annual tradition for the foreseeable future.

The Packers are forced to pick up the pieces from a devastating afternoon in Denver, without their All-World pass rusher and with 10 players — many of them key pieces — not practicing and listed as questionable on the injury report. While both teams are playing on a short week, the Bears coasted past the Cleveland Browns last Sunday, while the Pack played a tough, physical game in high altitude. This season, teams are 0-7 following a visit to Denver.

Then there’s the fact that this is the second meeting in three weeks. It’s not easy beating a team, especially a bitter rival, twice in a short timespan. Stack everything up, and you can see why the line has shifted from the Packers to the Bears as short favorites.

The Packers will be without their two best defensive linemen (Micah Parsons and Devonte Wyatt), their best pass catcher (Tucker Kraft). They will most likely not have right tackle Zach Tom and safety Evan Williams, neither of whom practiced all week. Evan Williams may not be back until the playoffs, if the Pack gets there.

Josh Jacobs will likely try to go, but he aggravated his knee injury in Denver, hasn’t practiced all week, and will likely be less than 100% if he does suit up. Watson, miraculously, looks like he will be able to play, despite a visit to a Denver hospital six days earlier.

The Bears are much healthier across the board, though Caleb Williams will be missing two key weapons, WRs Rome Odunze and Luther Burden III. Look for Ben Johnson to lean on the running game with his two-headed attack. Evan Williams starred in the first meeting as a run stopper and was a primary reason the Bears didn’t have any big plays on the ground. Whether Jeff Hafley moves Javon Bullard from the slot to safety and puts Nate Hobbs in at CB, or he rolls with Zayne Anderson in Caleb Williams’ place, the defense lacks a big-time playmaker.

Expect Hafley to pull out last year’s play sheet, with a lot more blitzing and disguised coverages, to try to make up for Parsons’ absence. Going against the tendency could cause Caleb Williams to put a few balls in harm’s way, especially without two of his favorite security blankets. Trying to keep him in the pocket as much as possible is the goal after he lit the Pack up down the stretch two weeks ago when he left the pocket. The tight ends will likely be Caleb’s favorite targets on Saturday night.

If the Packers are going to make some noise down the stretch, they’re going to have to ride Love's arm, with the team likely needing to put more points on the board post-Parsons. Love has been at his best in December and was on his way to a monster day in Denver with 215 yards in the first half. Then Tom and Watson exited, and the Broncos' defense swallowed up the offense.

The likely loss of Tom is less devastating this week, since the Bears don’t have a fearsome pass rush. Backup Darian Kinnard is also questionable, so we’ll see what happens there. Maybe Jordan Morgan gets a shot. Either way, I expect the Packers to score on a relatively mild December night in Chicago — temps are expected to be in the mid-30s, though the wind will make it feel around 10 degrees colder.

There’s a lot going against the Pack’s chances on Saturday night with the Bears sensing an opportunity to seize control of the NFC North and finally vanquish their hated rivals to the north.

A win by the Pack would instantly belong on the Matt LaFleur top-10 list, and I don’t say that lightly, considering we’re talking about the Bears here. If he can get his team to rise up after a season-altering loss in Denver and engineer a sweep of the Bears on a short week, Ed Policy will likely have his contract extension waiting for him on his desk Sunday morning.

It will take a creative game plan from Hafley and a group effort up front to rattle Caleb Williams. It will take a mistake-free performance to keep the running game in check and force Caleb Williams into tough third-down situations.

It will take Jordan Love playing like the top-five MVP candidate he’s become. It will take ball protection and not feeding Chicago’s appetite for turnovers. It will take a disciplined effort; another 10-penalty game can’t happen. It will take a clean night on special teams.

A lot has to go right for the Packers to make it 12 wins in their last 13 games against the Bears, and their sixth-straight victory at Soldier Field. The scales seem to be weighted toward the Chicago side in this matchup. All I know is whether it’s LaFleur and Love, McCarthy and Rodgers, or Holmgren and Favre. It doesn’t really matter. Throw out the records. The Packers own the Bears.

Packers 26

Bears 24