The Green Bay Packers are investing heavily in Josh Jacobs, paying him top-five running back money, according to Over The Cap. The hope is for Jacobs to elevate Green Bay’s ground game, providing a dynamic boost that will alleviate pressure on Jordan Love and help balance the offense. Running back may increasingly be an afterthought in the modern NFL, but the Packers have high expectations for Jacobs.
In 2023, Green Bay ranked 14th in PFF's rushing offense. However, their ground game stagnated when Aaron Jones was sidelined by injuries early and late in the season. A.J. Dillon became Green Bay’s primary running back but struggled, averaging just 3.4 yards per carry and scoring only two touchdowns.
Jacobs brings a proven track record to the Packers, with at least three seasons of 1,000 rushing yards and nine rushing touchdowns. He led the NFL in rushing yards in 2022. However, since entering the league in 2019, Jacobs has yet to record his first career receiving touchdown.
He’s entering the upcoming season after experiencing career lows in games played, yards, and yards per carry in 2023. Additionally, Jacobs tied his 2022 high in fumbles. However, the Las Vegas Raiders' offense ranked as the 21st-best passing offense and a bottom-six rushing offense. Even for a talented player like Jacobs, it's nearly impossible to thrive in an offense that struggles to generate momentum and consistency.
Since 2010, every running back to win the Offensive Player of the Year award has amassed at least 2,000 scrimmage yards. Adrian Peterson (2012), DeMarco Murray (2014), Todd Gurley (2017), Derrick Henry (2020), and Christian McCaffrey (2023) all achieved this feat. For Jacobs to contend for and ultimately win the award, he must elevate Green Bay to a top-five rushing offense.
Green Bay last came close to being a top-five rushing unit in 2013, when Eddie Lacy won the Offensive Rookie of the Year award. They ranked seventh in rushing offense. Additionally, Jacobs needs to be a solid contributor through the air and has yet to record a receiving touchdown.
Breaking some of Green Bay’s single-season records would bolster Jacobs' contention for the Offensive Player of the Year award. He would need to surpass the 1,883-yard rushing record Ahman Green set in 2003. Additionally, Jacobs would have to break Jim Taylor's 19 rushing touchdown record set in 1962. Jacobs could aim to at least tie his career-high in receiving yards, which was 400 yards in 2022.
Having a quarterback like Jordan Love, who ranked among the top 10 passers last year, should significantly ease the pressure on Jacobs. He will likely face fewer loaded boxes in 2024. However, Green Bay's offensive line needs to improve its run-blocking performance. Last season, PFF ranked the Packers' offensive line as the 11th-worst run-blocking unit in the league.
Jacobs' chances of winning the award may hinge on how Matt LaFleur manages his workload. LaFleur was notably cautious with Aaron Jones during his tenure in Green Bay, often rotating him out in the second quarter for Dillon. Will LaFleur adopt a similar approach with Jacobs, sharing carries to maintain freshness? Or will he lean on Jacobs to handle the bulk of the workload?
High expectations surround Green Bay's ground game for the upcoming 2024 season. However, Jacobs' chances of winning the award hinge on a collective team effort. The offensive line must excel in run-blocking. Furthermore, a proficient passing game will also be crucial, relieving pressure on the running game and keeping defenses balanced. For Jacobs to succeed, the entire offense must operate cohesively, each component contributing to his potential accolades.
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