The discourse around Jordan Love is still all over the place nationally, but hearing out the haters is a waste of time. In his third year as a starter for the Green Bay Packers, Love is playing his best football yet and should firmly be in any conversations about the top quarterbacks.
True, I'm a biased Packers fan. But choose a metric, and Love is probably near or at the top.
The pure numbers aren't always gaudy thanks to Green Bay's more balanced offense, but any efficiency metric or measure of exceeding offensive expectations, Love is topping the charts (don't worry, we'll get to the raw data).
On Sunday Night Football, not only did Love outplay his mentor, Aaron Rodgers, but he did so in arguably his best game yet. The 360-yard, three-touchdown performance, including a franchise-record-tying 20 consecutive completions, should elevate Love's MVP odds. Love might not be a favorite yet, but he's flirting with MVP-level numbers. What does Love need to cement his case, and what obstacles are in his way?
By raw numbers, Love is fifth in passer rating (112.8), sixth in QBR (73.5), and sixth in completion percentage (fifth if you remove Tyler Huntley's small sample size). Pure yardage and TDs aren't as high as other QBs, admittedly, thanks to Green Bay's higher reliance on the running game, but those numbers still look good.
It's the advanced stats where Love's case lies. Love leads quarterbacks in expected pass situations, while he's putting up career numbers in completion and adjusted completion numbers, big-time throw rate, turnover-worthy plays, and expected points added. For a more detailed breakdown on each of these stats from someone who didn't get a C in their quantitative research classes, check out this excellent mathematical breakdown from PackersWire's Mark Oldacres.
What it breaks down to is that Love is playing the best football of his career, even better than his famed Toyotathon numbers, and his stats are among the best in the league. Love still looks for the big plays when he can, but he's comfortable taking the plays available, leading to an increased success rate on intermediate throws and a decrease in his average depth of target.
He's improved at taking care of the football, with only two interceptions this season. And he's making big plays with his feet, which you'd think would endear him to Rex Ryan more.
Against the Pittsburgh Steelers, who have the league's most expensive defense, Matt LaFleur trusted Love to let it rip, and Love responded with a franchise-tying 20 completions in a row, including some absolutely sicko throws. Brett Favre's stellar 2007 season was the last time this feat occurred, and Love did it while doing something neither Favre nor Rodgers accomplished — a victory in the Steel City.
While this was Love's best game of the season, it's not the only one in his highlight reel, hence the season-long stats.
We've long approached the point where Matt LaFleur can feel confident in letting Love take over the offense. LaFleur's playcalling hasn't always inspired the fanbase. Still, he's put his quarterback in position to make plays and trusted him, as with the fourth-and-two conversion against the Arizona Cardinals.
You'd like to see the run game (especially the run blocking and playcalling) improve to elevate the offense on the whole, but Love is fully capable of carrying a game when it doesn't work.
With Christian Watson back in the offense and Tucker Kraft getting more of a target share, we're just beginning to see the best version of this passing offense. If Matthew Golden gets more involved and Jayden Reed comes back hungry, Love's passing attack will be soaring come winter.
A shift in the balance toward more passing, Watson's impact on the entire scheme, and a better focus on getting the ball into the hands of the best playmakers will allow Love to keep putting up numbers and making his case for the MVP race.
Love is facing stiff competition for the award. His +2000 odds are tied with Jared Goff for eighth-best.
Patrick Mahomes, the most underrated player in the league, is the favorite at +115. Meanwhile, last year's MVP, Josh Allen, is right behind him at +350. Drake Maye, Baker Mayfield, and Daniel Jones are in the conversation thanks to having their own career-best seasons. Matthew Stafford is also having another excellent season, giving him solid odds. Jonathan Taylor has the highest odds non-QB, at 1800.
It's a tough crowd to break away from, and everyone in the running has a legitimate case. Mahomes and Allen are perennial favorites and continue to play at their high level, while even those with so-called “voter fatigue” have plenty of other options to choose from. Love will need to not only be efficient but also take over games like he did on Sunday night to ultimately stand out.
There's no question that Love could win a Super Bowl with his level of play, and that matters the most at the end of the day. Team victories trump individual awards, but Love is making a case for the league's most prestigious individual award, and he deserves his flowers for it.
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