How Does A Full-Strength Mercury Team Match Up With the Lynx?

Immediately after the Phoenix Mercury punched their ticket to the semifinals after a 79-73 game three victory over the New York Liberty, a sideline reporter asked Alyssa Thomas what she thought of the upcoming Lynx matchup.

“They haven’t seen us [at] full strength,” Thomas added. “We’re ready, we’re ready to play.”

Thomas has a point, the Lynx won the season series 3-1, but haven’t played the Mercury since July 16. Thomas was injured when Minnesota beat them on May 30, and she was also out for Phoenix’s June 3 loss.

The Mercury won on July 9, but were missing swing forward Satou Sabally. Phoenix also came up short in their final matchup on July 16, again playing without Sabally. A lot has changed since then.

So, who are the Mercury, and what are their strengths?

To understand the Mercury, it’s important to acknowledge their struggles this season. Head coach Nate Tibbetts is coaching an entirely new roster from last year's Mercury squad, which lost to the Lynx in the first round of the 2024 playoffs.

Diana Taurasi retired, and Brittney Griner left for greener pastures in Atlanta. The Mercury traded Natasha Cloud, who eventually wound up on the Liberty. They also traded guard Sophie Cunningham to the Indiana Fever, and Rebecca Allen wound up in Chicago. Therefore, five of the top six minutes-per-game players on the Mercury would be off the team before 2025.

Kahleah Copper is the lone survivor from the overhaul and only played 28 games this season, missing 16 with injury.

Tibbetts did a masterful job bringing a group of players together after a complete rebuild on the fly last offseason. It helped that they got Thomas off the Connecticut Sun in a trade, and she had a sensational season. She broke her own record of five triple-doubles in a season by posting seven this year in 36 games for Phoenix, prompting MVP buzz.

Thomas is also shooting an impressive 53.2% from the field with a 56.8% true shooting percentage, which factors in three-point percentage and free throws to weight them appropriately.

She’s scoring 15.4 points per game, snagging 8.8 rebounds, and leading the WNBA in assists with 9.2 per game. Thomas is everything for the Mercury offensively. She’s posting a team-high 107.3 offensive rating, a team-best 2.64 assists-to-turnover ratio, and accounting for 50.2% of the team's assists while on the floor.

Curiously, Thomas doesn’t lead the team in usage, with just 23.8% of plays ending in her shooting or turning the ball over. That distinction goes to their scoring guards Sabally (27.6%) and Cooper (27.0%). They also lead the team in scoring, with Sabally scoring 16.3 points per game and Copper finishing in second with 15.6.

The usage splits and Thomas’ playmaking create a clear picture of the Mercury offense. Thomas often is tasked with setting up the offense, often in the post or as a point forward. Then, they rely on off-ball action to find her shooters getting open or cutting, with Cooper and Sabally. The usage suggests that 78.4% of plays when Thomas, Cooper, and Sabally share the court end with one of them shooting or turning the ball over.

While Thomas’ individual season has been great, it has led to a middling offensive season for the Mercury, which admittedly was affected by the massive roster turnover. Ultimately, the Mercury finished 7th in offensive rating at 103.6, 5.9 points lower than the Lynx’s top-ranked offense. They also finished 7th in true shooting at 54.2%, mainly due to them shooting just 49.6% from two-point range, and 34.0% from three.

However, Tibbetts has created a dynamic offense. Despite their shooting struggles, they ranked fifth in assist-to-turnover ratio, which reflects ball sharing and a reduced amount of mistakes that result in turnovers. They finished 4th in assist percentage at 70.4%, meaning 7 out of 10 of their shots come off an assist. They also play at the third fastest pace in the WNBA, which allows for a lot of shots and opportunities for their Big 3 on offense.

However, the Mercury's defensive identity is a little harder to figure out. They are ninth in rebounding percentage, but fourth in defensive rebounding percentage. That reflects their focus on getting back into transition in favor of going for offensive rebounds, in which they finished 9th by percentage. Due to this prioritization, the Mercury ranks fourth in points given up off turnovers, fourth in steals, and second in second-chance points allowed.

The Mercury also rank second in points in the paint allowed. This data is reflective of a defense that thrives on the margins. Defensive rebounding, limiting mistakes, forcing teams to try and score on their first attempt, and making it hard for teams to score inside due to their set defense being in place shortly after a missed shot attempt on offense.

Phoenix is less of a one-woman show on defense than their Thomas-led offense. Instead, they work well as a unit, with a lot of perimeter switching and solid post protection that limits opportunities for the opposing offense. The Mercury ranked fourth in opponent field goal percentage, three-point percentage, and turnovers.

They finished fifth in defensive rating at 100.4, 2.9 points worse than Minnesota’s top-ranked defense. As a result, the Mercury finished with a net rating of 3.2, good for sixth but over three times lower than the Lynx’s top-ranked 12.1 net rating. Unfortunately, that stat highlights just how difficult it will be for the Mercury to upset the Lynx.

Even though the Lynx have not seen Phoenix at full strength, they will be the heavy favorite. Statistically, Minnesota outmatches the Mercury in almost every category, including offensive and defensive ratings, net ratings, true shooting, three-point shooting, rebounding, assist to turnovers, and assist percentage – just to name a few of the long list.

The Lynx are also offensively led by three All-Stars and an MVP finalist, Napheesa Collier. Meanwhile, co-Defensive Player of the Year Alanna Smith and Collier, last year’s Defensive Player of the Year, lead their top-ranked defensive squad.

The Lynx theoretically have the edge, but as we saw with the Indiana Fever knocking off the Atlanta Dream, anything can happen in the WNBA playoffs. The Lynx will see a fully healthy, locked-in Mercury team for the first time on Sunday at home in the Target Center.

For the Mercury, it’s a chance to shock the WNBA world. For the Lynx, it’s just the next matchup in their season-long revenge tour.