History Does Not Suggest Matt LaFleur Will Ever Win A Ring In Green Bay

The Green Bay Packers have consistently made the playoffs under Matt LaFleur but haven’t reached a Super Bowl during his seven years. With his new extension, Ed Policy will cling to the hope that it happens. But history is not on the side of LaFleur ever winning a ring in Green Bay.

LaFleur will be entering his eighth year with the Packers in 2026. Only one head coach has ever reached their first Super Bowl after more than seven years with the same team. John Madden accomplished that in his eighth year with the Raiders in 1977.

That's it. That's the list.

On top of that, 36 head coaches have ever won a Super Bowl. History suggests, per Josh Dubow of the Associated Press, that it almost always happens in the first five years of a coaching hire.

Of the 36 that have been to the mountaintop, four did it in Year 1, eight in Year 2, four in Year 3, seven in Year 4, and five in Year 5. The point? If you haven't won a Super Bowl in the first five years on the job, history doesn't speak glowingly of your chances.

It's not impossible for LaFleur to do it in Green Bay. The talent on the roster is evident. The Packers have their franchise quarterback in Jordan Love. And LaFleur is a good coach, despite the avalanche of negativity on social media since the end of the season.

Maybe the patience displayed by Policy in giving LaFleur an extension will pay off. Andy Reid is a perfect example of patience paying off for a franchise.

Reid won a Super Bowl in Kansas City in his seventh year with the Kansas City Chiefs, his 21st year overall as a head coach. He reached a Super Bowl in his sixth year in Philadelphia in 2004 but never returned until he got his second stint, this one in Kansas City, and hoisted the Lombardi Trophy in 2019 for the first of three times.

LaFleur winning a title in Green Bay at this stage would certainly be defying the odds, but it isn't an impossible dream. The Packers have made the playoffs in six of LaFleur's seven seasons in charge, they just haven't been able to finish the job. However, this isn't a coach entering Year 8 on a sinking ship. Green Bay boasted the youngest roster in the NFL for a third year in a row. From this perspective, LaFleur has, at minimum, a puncher's chance to defy history.

Still, this won’t be a cake walk by any stretch of the imagination. The Buffalo Bills were in a similar spot with head coach Sean McDermott and pulled the plug on Monday. McDermott had been the head coach for the Bills for nine years, constantly making the postseason. McDermott was never able to deliver a title, or even an appearance in the Super Bowl, and the Bills decided it was time for a change. Green Bay went the opposite route, demonstrating more faith in LaFleur with another extension.

Looking at the current playoff picture this year and history will flex its muscles yet again.

Mike Vrabel is in his first year in New England with the Patriots punching a ticket to the AFC Championship. He'll go up against Sean Payton, who's in his third year in Denver and who previously won a Super Bowl with the New Orleans Saints. Payton accomplished that in his fourth year with the Saints in 2009.

In the NFC, Mike Macdonald, who's in just his second year as head coach of the Seattle Seahawks, will go up against Sean McVay, who got to a Super Bowl in his second year with the Los Angeles Rams and won one in his fifth year. All of the final four coaches remaining are examples that align with what history says about when head coaches win a Super Bowl.

Green Bay isn't some start-up project with unpredictable margins. There's a lot already established, which is one reason why Policy probably felt comfortable sticking with LaFleur. The Packers will enter 2026 as a team likely to make the playoffs; from there, it's anyone's guess. If they were to win it all in 2026 it wouldn't be shocking, but it would be defying the historical precedent.